This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 61% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 61% to break even | 5%–56% | 41 points shortwon 20%, needs 61% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 61% to break even | 7%–46% | 41 points shortwon 20%, needs 61% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 61% to break even | 8%–41% | 41 points shortwon 20%, needs 61% |
| This season | 2 of 729%needs 61% to break even | 10%–59% | 32 points shortwon 29%, needs 61% |
| Last season | 2 of 1217%needs 61% to break even | 6%–40% | 44 points shortwon 17%, needs 61% |
| Every game | 4 of 1921%needs 61% to break even | 10%–40% | 40 points shortwon 21%, needs 61% |
Tonight BALL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against SAC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
BALL points in each game against over 30.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | BALL points | Beat 30.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 32 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 14 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 24 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 13 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 15 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 41 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 3 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Nov 29 | 24 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 9 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 9 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 17 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 7 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 42 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 0 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 20 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 25 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 34 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 3 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 0 | -30.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 27.5 team totalBall State Cardinals · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | 14.1Strong | |
| Under 30.5 team totalBall State Cardinals · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | 6.9Good | |
| Under 31.5 team totalBall State Cardinals · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | 1.3Slight | |
| Under 34.5 team totalBall State Cardinals · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 11 of 12· last season92%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | 4.6Good | |
| Under 37.5 team totalBall State Cardinals · Tomorrow 3:30 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 11 of 12· last season92%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | -1.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.