This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 34% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 34% to break even | 0%–35% | 34 points shortwon 0%, needs 34% |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 34% to break even | 2%–35% | 24 points shortwon 10%, needs 34% |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 157%needs 34% to break even | 2%–25% | 27 points shortwon 7%, needs 34% |
| This season | 1 of 714%needs 34% to break even | 3%–45% | 19 points shortwon 14%, needs 34% |
| Last season | 0 of 120%needs 34% to break even | 0%–18% | 34 points shortwon 0%, needs 34% |
| Every game | 1 of 195%needs 34% to break even | 1%–20% | 28 points shortwon 5%, needs 34% |
Tonight BALL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against SAC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against ball -21.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 21.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 1 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | -31 | -52.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | -15 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | -13 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | -36 | -57.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 24 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | -53 | -74.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Nov 29 | -21 | -42.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | -29 | -50.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | -15 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 4 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | -14 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 14 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | -42 | -63.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 6 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | -6 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 5 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | -39 | -60.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | -31 | -52.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.