This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 66% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 66% to break even | 44%–95% | 14 points betterwon 80%, needs 66% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 967%needs 66% to break even | 40%–86% | 1 points betterwon 67%, needs 66% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1362%needs 66% to break even | 39%–80% | 4 points shortwon 62%, needs 66% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 66% to break even | 50%–96% | 18 points betterwon 83%, needs 66% |
| Last season | 9 of 1369%needs 66% to break even | 46%–85% | 4 points betterwon 69%, needs 66% |
| Every game | 14 of 1974%needs 66% to break even | 55%–87% | 8 points betterwon 74%, needs 66% |
Tonight UVA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DUKE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 42, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 42 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 36 | -6 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 39.5 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA -3.5 1st quarter spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET |
| 53 |
| +11 |
| Won |
| Oct 3 | 45 | +3 | Won |
| Sep 26 | 45 | +3 | Won |
| Sep 19 | 65 | +23 | Won |
| Sep 11 | 62 | +20 | Won |
| Aug 29 | 42 | 0 | Tie |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 20 | -22 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 47 | +5 | Won |
| Nov 29 | 34 | -8 | Lost |
| Nov 15 | 51 | +9 | Won |
| Nov 8 | 25 | -17 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | 52 | +10 | Won |
| Oct 25 | 33 | -9 | Lost |
| Oct 18 | 42 | 0 | Tie |
| Oct 4 | 57 | +15 | Won |
| Sep 26 | 84 | +42 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 68 | +26 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 71 | +29 | Won |
| Sep 6 | 66 | +24 | Won |
| Aug 30 | 55 | +13 | Won |
| 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 31% to break even |
| -16.6Not beating its price |
| Under 40 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +200at Fanatics | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 33% to break even | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Under 40.5 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +218at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 31% to break even | -16.7Not beating its price |
| Under 41 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +175at Fanatics | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 36% to break even | -20.7Not beating its price |
| Under 41.5 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +164at FanDuel | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 38% to break even | -21.9Not beating its price |
| Under 42 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +150at Fanatics | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 40% to break even | -22.2Not beating its price |
| Under 42.5 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +152at FanDuel | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 40% to break even | -18.5Not beating its price |
| Under 43 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +145at Fanatics | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 41% to break even | -19.4Not beating its price |
| Under 43.5 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 41% to break even | -19.3Not beating its price |
| Under 44 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +130at Fanatics | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 43% to break even | -21.6Not beating its price |
| Under 44.5 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +122at FanDuel | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 45% to break even | -22.9Not beating its price |
| Under 45 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +120at Bovada | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 45% to break even | -20.0Not beating its price |
| Under 45.5 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +116at Polymarket | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 46% to break even | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Under 46 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +105at Fanatics | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 49% to break even | -15.6Not beating its price |
| Under 46.5 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 49% to break even | -15.6Not beating its price |
| Under 47 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -105at Fanatics | 9 of 14· last 15 games, 1 skipped64%needs 51% to break even | -15.9Not beating its price |
| Under 47.5 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | NV-104at Novig | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 51% to break even | -13.9Not beating its price |
| Under 48 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -120at Fanatics | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even | -16.7Not beating its price |
| Under 48.5 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even | -16.9Not beating its price |
| Under 49 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -135at Fanatics | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 57% to break even | -19.1Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 57% to break even | -18.9Not beating its price |
| Under 50 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -145at Fanatics | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 59% to break even | -20.5Not beating its price |
| Under 50.5 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 60% to break even | -20.9Not beating its price |
| Under 51 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -170at Fanatics | 10 of 14· last 15 games, 1 skipped71%needs 63% to break even | -22.3Not beating its price |
| Under 51.5 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 63% to break even | -21.1Not beating its price |
| Under 52 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -190at Fanatics | 11 of 14· last 15 games, 1 skipped79%needs 66% to break even | -21.9Not beating its price |
| Under 52.5 game total, UVA gamesVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 66% to break even | -21.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 5 of 7· this season71%needs 34% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| 1.1Slight |
| UVA -2.5 1st quarter spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.7Not beating its price |
| UVA -0.5 1st quarter spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +137at Polymarket | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -1.2Not beating its price |
| UVA -7.5 spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +245at BetRivers | 7 of 14· last season50%needs 29% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.1Not beating its price |
| UVA +0.5 3rd quarter spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 13 of 14· last season93%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.6Not beating its price |
| UVA -7 spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +230at BetRivers | 7 of 14· last season50%needs 30% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.1Not beating its price |
| UVA -5.5 spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +170at BetRivers | 8 of 14· last season57%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.3Not beating its price |
| UVA -6 spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +188at BetRivers | 7 of 13· last season54%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.4Not beating its price |
| UVA +0.5 1st quarter spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -208at Kalshi | 12 of 14· last season86%needs 68% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.7Not beating its price |
| UVA -6.5 1st half spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 7 of 14· last season50%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.8Not beating its price |
| UVA -5 spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +165at BetRivers | 8 of 14· last season57%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.8Not beating its price |
| UVA -6.5 spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +195at BetRivers | 7 of 14· last season50%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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