This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 56% to break even | 14%–73% | 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 56% to break even | 19%–65% | 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 56% to break even | 22%–61% | 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% |
| This season | 4 of 757%needs 56% to break even | 29%–81% | 1 points betterwon 57%, needs 56% |
| Last season | 6 of 1443%needs 56% to break even | 24%–64% | 13 points shortwon 43%, needs 56% |
| Every game | 10 of 2148%needs 56% to break even | 31%–65% | 8 points shortwon 48%, needs 56% |
Tonight UVA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DUKE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q total points in each game against over 7.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1Q total points | Beat 7.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 1st quarter totalVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA -3.5 1st quarter spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET |
| 14 |
| +6.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 3 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 26 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 19 | 21 | +13.5 | Won |
| Sep 11 | 21 | +13.5 | Won |
| Aug 29 | 10 | +2.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 29 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 15 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 8 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | 10 | +2.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Oct 18 | 14 | +6.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 14 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 26 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 28 | +20.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 14 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | 21 | +13.5 | Won |
| Aug 30 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost |
| 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 51% to break even |
| -15.4Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 1st quarter totalVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -179at Polymarket | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 64% to break even | -19.7Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 1st quarter totalVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 66% to break even | -20.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 5 of 7· this season71%needs 34% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| 1.1Slight |
| UVA -2.5 1st quarter spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.7Not beating its price |
| UVA -0.5 1st quarter spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +137at Polymarket | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -1.2Not beating its price |
| UVA -7.5 spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +245at BetRivers | 7 of 14· last season50%needs 29% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.1Not beating its price |
| UVA +0.5 3rd quarter spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 13 of 14· last season93%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.6Not beating its price |
| UVA -7 spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +230at BetRivers | 7 of 14· last season50%needs 30% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.1Not beating its price |
| UVA -5.5 spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +170at BetRivers | 8 of 14· last season57%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.3Not beating its price |
| UVA -6 spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +188at BetRivers | 7 of 13· last season54%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.4Not beating its price |
| UVA +0.5 1st quarter spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -208at Kalshi | 12 of 14· last season86%needs 68% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.7Not beating its price |
| UVA -6.5 1st half spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 7 of 14· last season50%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.8Not beating its price |
| UVA -5 spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +165at BetRivers | 8 of 14· last season57%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.8Not beating its price |
| UVA -6.5 spreadVirginia Cavaliers · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +195at BetRivers | 7 of 14· last season50%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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