This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 52% to break even | 35%–81% | 8 points betterwon 60%, needs 52% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 52% to break even | 39%–78% | 8 points betterwon 60%, needs 52% |
| This season | 4 of 757%needs 52% to break even | 29%–81% | 5 points betterwon 57%, needs 52% |
| Last season | 10 of 1471%needs 52% to break even | 49%–86% | 20 points betterwon 71%, needs 52% |
| Every game | 14 of 2167%needs 52% to break even | 49%–81% | 15 points betterwon 67%, needs 52% |
Tonight UVA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DUKE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
2H margin in each game against uva 2h -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 2H margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | 13 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | -21 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 14 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 11 | 31 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 9 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 10 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 12 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 8 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 14 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | -14 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 13 | +12.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.