This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 42% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 42% to break even | 65%–100% | 58 points betterwon 100%, needs 42% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 42% to break even | 35%–81% | 18 points betterwon 60%, needs 42% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 42% to break even | 28%–67% | 5 points betterwon 47%, needs 42% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 42% to break even | 50%–96% | 42 points betterwon 83%, needs 42% |
| Last season | 5 of 1436%needs 42% to break even | 19%–57% | 6 points shortwon 36%, needs 42% |
| Every game | 10 of 2050%needs 42% to break even | 33%–67% | 8 points betterwon 50%, needs 42% |
Tonight DUKE plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against UVA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
3Q margin in each game against duke 3q -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 3Q margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE +1.5 2nd half spreadDuke Blue Devils · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET |
| 1 |
| +0.5 |
| Won |
| Sep 26 | 10 | +9.5 | Won |
| Sep 19 | 14 | +13.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 31 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 29 | 6 | +5.5 | Won |
| Nov 22 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 15 | -14 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Nov 8 | 11 | +10.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 7 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 8 | +7.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | -8 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Aug 28 | 14 | +13.5 | Won |
| 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 59% to break even |
| 6.1Good |
| DUKE +0.5 2nd half spreadDuke Blue Devils · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 56% to break even | Record is this season's | 4.0Good |
| DUKE -0.5 2nd half spreadDuke Blue Devils · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 47% to break even | Record is this season's | 3.0Slight |
| DUKE +4.5 spreadDuke Blue Devils · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 63% to break even | 1.8Slight |
| DUKE +4 spreadDuke Blue Devils · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -160at Fanatics | 9 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped100%needs 62% to break even | 0.8Slight |
| DUKE +5 spreadDuke Blue Devils · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -180at Fanatics | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 64% to break even | 0.5Slight |
| Over 27.5 team totalDuke Blue Devils · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 9 of 14· last season64%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | 0.4Slight |
| DUKE -3.5 spreadDuke Blue Devils · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +195at BetRivers | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 34% to break even | 0.1Slight |
| Over 41.5 game total, DUKE gamesDuke Blue Devils · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -195at Fanatics | 14 of 15· last 15 games93%needs 66% to break even | -0.0Not beating its price |
| DUKE +5.5 spreadDuke Blue Devils · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -190at Fanatics | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 66% to break even | -0.5Not beating its price |
| DUKE -3 spreadDuke Blue Devils · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +170at BetRivers | 7 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped78%needs 37% to break even | -0.5Not beating its price |
| DUKE -5.5 spreadDuke Blue Devils · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +250at BetRivers | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 29% to break even | -1.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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