This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 54% to break even | 27%–86% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 54% to break even | 44%–87% | 16 points betterwon 70%, needs 54% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 54% to break even | 46%–83% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 54% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 54% to break even | 35%–88% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 54% |
| Last season | 8 of 1362%needs 54% to break even | 39%–80% | 8 points betterwon 62%, needs 54% |
| Every game | 12 of 1963%needs 54% to break even | 44%–79% | 9 points betterwon 63%, needs 54% |
Tonight UTAH plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q total points in each game against over 10.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1Q total points | Beat 10.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 10.5 1st quarter totalUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH -13.5 spreadUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET |
| 14 |
| +3.5 |
| Won |
| Sep 26 | 14 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 19 | 16 | +5.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 3 | 17 | +6.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 31 | 21 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 3 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | 14 | +3.5 | Won |
| Nov 15 | 14 | +3.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 | 21 | +10.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 | 17 | +6.5 | Won |
| Oct 18 | 0 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 14 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 3 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | 17 | +6.5 | Won |
| Aug 30 | 13 | +2.5 | Won |
| 5 of 13· last season38%needs 53% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -29.5Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 1st quarter totalUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last season38%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.5Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 1st quarter totalUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 6 of 13· last season46%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 35% to break even |
| 9.7Strong |
| UTAH -8.5 spreadUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | +126at Polymarket | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 44% to break even | 6.7Good |
| UTAH -9.5 spreadUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 45% to break even | 6.4Good |
| UTAH -11.5 spreadUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 40% to break even | 6.1Good |
| UTAH -7.5 spreadUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | +116at Polymarket | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 46% to break even | 5.0Good |
| UTAH -10.5 spreadUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | +143at Polymarket | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 41% to break even | 4.9Good |
| UTAH -2.5 1st quarter spreadUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | 4.8Good |
| UTAH -3.5 1st quarter spreadUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 46% to break even | Record is this season's | 4.1Good |
| UTAH -7.5 1st half spreadUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 41% to break even | 3.9Good |
| UTAH -0.5 1st quarter spreadUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | -114at Polymarket | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | 3.6Good |
| UTAH -2.5 1st half spreadUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 62% to break even | Record is this season's | 1.4Slight |
| UTAH -3.5 1st half spreadUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 54% to break even | Record is this season's | 1.3Slight |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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