This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 38% to break even | 5%–56% | 18 points shortwon 20%, needs 38% |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 38% to break even | 2%–35% | 28 points shortwon 10%, needs 38% |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 1513%needs 38% to break even | 5%–33% | 24 points shortwon 13%, needs 38% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 38% to break even | 4%–50% | 21 points shortwon 17%, needs 38% |
| Last season | 2 of 1315%needs 38% to break even | 5%–37% | 22 points shortwon 15%, needs 38% |
| Every game | 3 of 1916%needs 38% to break even | 6%–34% | 22 points shortwon 16%, needs 38% |
Tonight UTAH plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
UTAH points in each game against under 27.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | UTAH points | Beat 27.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 27 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 41 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 31 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 33 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 43 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 3 | 66 | -38.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 31 | 44 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 31 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 51 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 55 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 45 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 53 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 21 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 42 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 48 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 10 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 31 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | 63 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 43 | -15.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 27.5 team totalUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 67% to break even | -6.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 30.5 team totalUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 58% to break even | 0.5Slight | ||
| Over 31.5 team totalUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 54% to break even | -9.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 34.5 team totalUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 37.5 team totalUtah Utes · Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | 0.6Slight |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.