This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 55% to break even | 14%–73% | 15 points shortwon 40%, needs 55% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 55% to break even | 27%–73% | 5 points shortwon 50%, needs 55% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 55% to break even | 22%–61% | 15 points shortwon 40%, needs 55% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 55% to break even | 22%–78% | 5 points shortwon 50%, needs 55% |
| Last season | 5 of 1338%needs 55% to break even | 20%–61% | 17 points shortwon 38%, needs 55% |
| Every game | 8 of 1942%needs 55% to break even | 26%–61% | 13 points shortwon 42%, needs 55% |
Tonight ARMY plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against TLSA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
ARMY points in each game against over 26.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | ARMY points | Beat 26.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 56 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 23.5 team totalArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY +4.5 spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET |
| 20 |
| -6.5 |
| Lost |
| Oct 3 | 29 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 25 | 21 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Sep 12 | 24 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 5 | 59 | +32.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 41 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | 16 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Nov 29 | 27 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 22 | 25 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 8 | 14 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | AFA | 20 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Oct 18 | 17 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 | 24 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 31 | +4.5 | Won |
| Sep 25 | 6 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 38 | +11.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | 24 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Aug 29 | 27 | +0.5 | Won |
| 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 40% to break even |
| -18.7Not beating its price |
| Under 26.5 team totalArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -101at Polymarket | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Under 27.5 team totalArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Under 30.5 team totalArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 10 of 13· last season77%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 63% to break even |
| 3.6Good |
| ARMY -3.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 36% to break even | 2.8Slight |
| ARMY +5.5 spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 67% to break even | 1.0Slight |
| ARMY +0.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 54% to break even | 0.1Slight |
| ARMY +2.5 spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 55% to break even | -0.2Not beating its price |
| ARMY -2.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 44% to break even | -1.3Not beating its price |
| ARMY +2.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 57% to break even | -1.8Not beating its price |
| ARMY -1.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 45% to break even | -2.0Not beating its price |
| ARMY +1.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 57% to break even | -2.2Not beating its price |
| ARMY -0.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 46% to break even | -2.8Not beating its price |
| ARMY +3.5 spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 61% to break even | -3.3Not beating its price |
| ARMY +3.5 1st half spreadArmy Black Knights · Tomorrow 8:30 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 14 of 15· last 15 games93%needs 64% to break even | -4.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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