This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 62% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 62% to break even | 44%–95% | 18 points betterwon 80%, needs 62% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 62% to break even | 44%–87% | 8 points betterwon 70%, needs 62% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 62% to break even | 59%–92% | 18 points betterwon 80%, needs 62% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 62% to break even | 50%–96% | 21 points betterwon 83%, needs 62% |
| Last season | 8 of 1362%needs 62% to break even | 39%–80% | 1 points shortwon 62%, needs 62% |
| Every game | 13 of 1968%needs 62% to break even | 50%–83% | 6 points betterwon 68%, needs 62% |
Tonight ARMY plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against TLSA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q margin in each game against army 1q +0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1Q margin | Beat -0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 7 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 25 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 21 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | AFA | 4 | +4.5 | Won |
| Oct 18 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 7 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 25 | -21 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | -14 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | -3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 4 | +4.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.