This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 45% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 45% to break even | 44%–95% | 35 points betterwon 80%, needs 45% |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 45% to break even | 65%–98% | 45 points betterwon 90%, needs 45% |
| Last 15 games | 13 of 1587%needs 45% to break even | 67%–95% | 42 points betterwon 87%, needs 45% |
| This season | 6 of 786%needs 45% to break even | 55%–97% | 41 points betterwon 86%, needs 45% |
| Last season | 10 of 1377%needs 45% to break even | 54%–90% | 32 points betterwon 77%, needs 45% |
| Every game | 16 of 2080%needs 45% to break even | 62%–91% | 35 points betterwon 80%, needs 45% |
Tonight TA&M plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against ALA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q margin in each game against ta&m 1q +0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1Q margin | Beat -0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 7 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 7 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 9 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 20 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 21 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | -14 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 7 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 7 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 4 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | -3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 7 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | 4 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 4 | +4.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.