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Won30 of 83last season · 36%
Best price+177Polymarket
Price needs36.1%wins to break even
Every game30 of 85this season and last
Trend score-15.3Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 36% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% | won by 1.2points |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 36% to break even | 19%–65% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% | lost by 2.6points |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 36% to break even | 17%–54% | 3 points shortwon 33%, needs 36% | lost by 4.9points |
| This season | 0 of 20%needs 36% to break even | 0%–58% | 36 points shortwon 0%, needs 36% | lost by 21points |
| Last season | 30 of 8336%needs 36% to break even | 28%–45% | evenwon 36%, needs 36% | won by 2.3points |
| Every game | 30 of 8535%needs 36% to break even | 27%–44% | 1 points shortwon 35%, needs 36% | won by 1.7points |
Games like tonight
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the favorite, after a loss, on a back-to-back, against CHA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last, each on its own: 2 of 5 against CHA · 13 of 42 on the road.
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
MIA -8.5 (spread)2 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Margin in each game against MIA -8.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 8.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 |  DET | -17 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Oct 21 |  MIN | -25 | -33.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 |  CHA | -1 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Apr 12 |  ATL | 26 | +17.5 | Won |
| Apr 10 |  WSH | 23 | +14.5 | Won |
| Apr 9 |  TOR | -14 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Apr 7 | TOR | -26 | -34.5 | Lost |
| Apr 4 | WSH | 16 | +7.5 | Won |
| Apr 1 |  BOS | -18 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Mar 30 |  PHI | 10 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 29 |  IND | -17 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Mar 27 |  CLE | -21 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Mar 25 | CLE | 17 | +8.5 | Won |
| Mar 23 |  SA | -25 | -33.5 | Lost |
| Mar 21 |  HOU | -1 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Mar 19 |  LAL | -8 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Mar 17 | CHA | -30 | -38.5 | Lost |
| Mar 14 |  ORL | -4 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Mar 12 |  MIL | 7 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 10 | WSH | 21 | +12.5 | Won |
| Mar 8 | DET | 11 | +2.5 | Won |
| Mar 6 | CHA | 8 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 5 |  BKN | 16 | +7.5 | Won |
| Mar 3 | BKN | 26 | +17.5 | Won |
| Feb 28 | HOU | 10 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 26 | PHI | -7 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Feb 24 | MIL | -11 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Feb 21 |  MEM | 16 | +7.5 | Won |
| Feb 20 | ATL | 31 | +22.5 | Won |
| Feb 11 |  NO | 12 | +3.5 | Won |
| Feb 9 |  UTAH | -4 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Feb 8 | WSH | 31 | +22.5 | Won |
| Feb 6 | BOS | -2 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Feb 3 | ATL | -12 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Feb 1 |  CHI | 43 | +34.5 | Won |
| Jan 31 | CHI | -7 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Jan 29 | CHI | 3 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Jan 28 | ORL | -9 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Jan 25 |  PHX | 9 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 24 | UTAH | 31 | +22.5 | Won |
| Jan 22 |  POR | -17 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Jan 20 |  SAC | 13 | +4.5 | Won |
| Jan 19 |  GS | -23 | -31.5 | Lost |
| Jan 17 |  OKC | 2 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Jan 15 | BOS | -5 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Jan 13 | PHX | 6 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jan 11 | OKC | -12 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Jan 10 | IND | -24 | -32.5 | Lost |
| Jan 6 | MIN | -28 | -36.5 | Lost |
| Jan 4 | NO | 19 | +10.5 | Won |
| Jan 3 | MIN | -10 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Jan 1 | DET | 6 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 29 |  DEN | 24 | +15.5 | Won |
| Dec 27 | IND | 26 | +17.5 | Won |
| Dec 26 | ATL | 15 | +6.5 | Won |
| Dec 23 | TOR | -21 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 |  NY | -7 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Dec 19 | BOS | -13 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Dec 18 | BKN | 11 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 15 | TOR | -10 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Dec 9 | ORL | -9 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Dec 6 | SAC | -16 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Dec 5 | ORL | -1 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Dec 3 |  DAL | -10 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Dec 1 |  LAC | 17 | +8.5 | Won |
| Nov 29 | DET | -3 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Nov 26 | MIL | 3 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Nov 24 | DAL | 4 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 23 | PHI | 10 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 21 | CHI | 36 | +27.5 | Won |
| Nov 19 | GS | 14 | +5.5 | Won |
| Nov 17 | NY | 2 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Nov 14 | NY | -8 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Nov 12 | CLE | -14 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Nov 10 | CLE | 2 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Nov 8 | POR | 5 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 7 | CHA | 18 | +9.5 | Won |
| Nov 5 | DEN | -10 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Nov 3 | LAC | 1 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | LAL | -10 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Oct 30 | SA | -6 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Oct 28 | CHA | 27 | +18.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 | NY | 8 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 24 | MEM | 32 | +23.5 | Won |
| Oct 22 | ORL | -4 | -12.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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More on Miami Heat in this game
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.