This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 29% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 29% to break even | 5%–56% | 9 points shortwon 20%, needs 29% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 29% to break even | 19%–65% | 11 points betterwon 40%, needs 29% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 29% to break even | 22%–61% | 11 points betterwon 40%, needs 29% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 29% to break even | 0%–73% | 29 points shortwon 0%, needs 29% |
| Last season | 23 of 7033%needs 29% to break even | 24%–43% | 3 points betterwon 33%, needs 29% |
| Every game |
Tonight DET plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 16.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 pointsJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 pts + rebJohn Collins |
| 23 of 7132%needs 29% to break even |
| 24%–42% |
| 3 points betterwon 32%, needs 29% |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 16.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 6 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 15 | 11 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 0 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 12 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 12 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 25 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 15 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 17 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 22 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 5 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 0 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 8 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | 11 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 10 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 15 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 12 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 11 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 12 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 10 | 17 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 8 | 15 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | 22 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 19 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 2 | 15 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 16 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 27 | 11 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 23 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 11 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 3 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 25 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 16 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 22 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 8 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 30 | 16 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 8 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 17 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 20 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | 10 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | 9 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 12 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 16 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 15 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 10 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 21 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 10 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 25 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 5 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 10 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | 9 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 11 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 17 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | 8 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 2 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 9 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 19 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 6 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 17 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 12 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 14 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 5 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 16 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 10 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 14 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| +173at Kalshi |
| 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 37% to break even |
| -22.3Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 pointsJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | +170at Bovada | 20 of 70· last season29%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.1Not beating its price |
| Under 11.5 pointsJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | +125at Bovada | 26 of 70· last season37%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.2Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 pointsJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | -105at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 51% to break even | -16.2Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 pointsJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | -135at Bovada | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 57% to break even | -21.1Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 pointsJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | -180at Bovada | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 64% to break even | -26.9Not beating its price |
| Under 15.5 pointsJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | -230at Bovada | 42 of 70· last season60%needs 70% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +132at FanDuel |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 43% to break even |
| -4.0Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 pts + rebJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | +100at BetRivers | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 50% to break even | -4.8Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 pts + reb + astJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | -110at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even | -7.3Not beating its price |
| Yes double-doubleJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | +1000at DraftKings | 3 of 70· last season4%needs 9% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 pts + rebJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | -130at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 57% to break even | -9.3Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 assistsJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | +190at Bovada | 27 of 70· last season39%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 reboundsJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | +195at BetMGM | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 34% to break even | -9.8Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 pts + reb + astJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | +179at BetOnline | 26 of 70· last season37%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.9Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 reboundsJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | +116at Polymarket | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 46% to break even | -10.0Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 reb + astJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | -210at Bovada | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 68% to break even | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 pts + reb + astJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | -145at Bovada | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 59% to break even | -12.1Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 threesJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | +150at BetRivers | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 40% to break even | -12.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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