This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 36% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 36% to break even | 27%–73% | 14 points betterwon 50%, needs 36% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 36% to break even | 28%–67% | 11 points betterwon 47%, needs 36% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 36% to break even | 0%–73% | 36 points shortwon 0%, needs 36% |
| Last season | 26 of 7037%needs 36% to break even | 28%–47% | 1 points betterwon 37%, needs 36% |
| Every game | 26 of 7137%needs 36% to break even | 28%–46% | 1 points betterwon 37%, needs 36% |
Tonight DET plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + reb + ast in each game against over 23.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + reb + ast | Beat 23.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 12 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 15 | 20 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 27 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 2 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 20 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 31 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 21 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 28 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 12 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 5 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 11 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 27 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 27 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 13 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 23 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 13 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 27 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 10 | 26 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 8 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | 30 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 26 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 2 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 27 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 30 | 28 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 27 | 14 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 15 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 9 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 33 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 20 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 28 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 23 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 30 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 12 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 23 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 30 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 26 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | 13 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | 11 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 14 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 20 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 25 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 18 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 26 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 17 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 25 | 24 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 8 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 17 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | 13 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 18 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 11 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 6 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 16 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 25 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 6 | 18 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 15 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 18 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 12 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 23 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 18 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 17.5 pts + reb + astJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | +140at Bovada | 22 of 70· last season31%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.9Not beating its price | |
| Under 18.5 pts + reb + astJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | +110at Bovada | 27 of 70· last season39%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 19.5 pts + reb + astJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 32 of 70· last season46%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.8Not beating its price | |
| Under 20.5 pts + reb + astJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | -135at Bovada | 36 of 70· last season51%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.1Not beating its price | |
| Under 21.5 pts + reb + astJohn Collins · Today 8:10 PM ET | -170at Bovada | 37 of 70· last season53%needs 63% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.