This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 47% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 47% to break even | 14%–73% | 7 points shortwon 40%, needs 47% | 25points and rebounds |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 47% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points betterwon 50%, needs 47% | 24.7points and rebounds |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 47% to break even | 28%–67% | evenwon 47%, needs 47% | 25.2points and rebounds |
| This season | 0 of 20%needs 47% to break even | 0%–58% | 47 points shortwon 0%, needs 47% | 32.5points and rebounds |
| Last season | 12 of 3435%needs 47% to break even | 23%–49% | 11 points shortwon 35%, needs 47% | 25.3points and rebounds |
| Every game | 12 of 3633%needs 47% to break even | 22%–47% | 13 points shortwon 33%, needs 47% | 25.7points and rebounds |
Tonight MIL plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, on a back-to-back, against PHI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 18 on the road.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + reb in each game against under 23.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + reb | Beat 23.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 39 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 21 | 26 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 | 26 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 15 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 19 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 19 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 21 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 34 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 34 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 14 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 20 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 23 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 31 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 29 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 28 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 16 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 31 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 42 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 29 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 25 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 20 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 29 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 16 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 19 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 28 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 24 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 25 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 21 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 28 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 26 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 27 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 24 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 25 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 28 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 34 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 31 | -7.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 23.5 pts + rebTyler Herro · Today 7:40 PM ET | -150at Bovada | 22 of 34· last season65%needs 60% to break even12 of 18 on the road | Record is last season's | -22.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 24.5 pts + rebTyler Herro · Today 7:40 PM ET | -119at DraftKings | 20 of 34· last season59%needs 54% to break even11 of 18 on the road | Record is last season's | -18.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 25.5 pts + rebTyler Herro · Today 7:40 PM ET | +100at Bovada | 17 of 34· last season50%needs 50% to break even11 of 18 on the road | Record is last season's | -16.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 29.5 pts + rebTyler Herro · Today 7:40 PM ET | +210at FanDuel | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 32% to break even3 of 18 on the road | -18.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.