This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 65% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 65% to break even | 65%–100% | 35 points betterwon 100%, needs 65% | 6.2assists |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 65% to break even | 65%–98% | 25 points betterwon 90%, needs 65% | 5.6assists |
| Last 15 games | 13 of 1587%needs 65% to break even | 67%–95% | 22 points betterwon 87%, needs 65% | 5.1assists |
| This season | 2 of 2100%needs 65% to break even | 42%–100% | 35 points betterwon 100%, needs 65% | 6.5assists |
| Last season | 19 of 3456%needs 65% to break even | 42%–69% | 9 points shortwon 56%, needs 65% | 4.2assists |
| Every game | 21 of 3658%needs 65% to break even | 45%–71% | 6 points shortwon 58%, needs 65% | 4.3assists |
Tonight MIL plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, on a back-to-back, against PHI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 13 of 18 on the road.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Assists in each game against over 3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Assists | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 9 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 9 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 assistsTyler Herro · Today 7:40 PM ET | +150at Bovada | 15 of 34· last season44%needs 40% to break even5 of 18 on the road | Record is last season's | -27.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 4.5 assistsTyler Herro · Today 7:40 PM ET | -142at DraftKings | 20 of 34· last season59%needs 59% to break even10 of 18 on the road | Record is last season's | -27.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.