This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 48% to break even | 27%–86% | 12 points betterwon 60%, needs 48% | 31.2points, rebounds and assists |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 48% to break even | 27%–73% | 2 points betterwon 50%, needs 48% | 30.3points, rebounds and assists |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 48% to break even | 33%–72% | 6 points betterwon 53%, needs 48% | 30.3points, rebounds and assists |
| This season | 2 of 2100%needs 48% to break even | 42%–100% | 52 points betterwon 100%, needs 48% | 39points, rebounds and assists |
| Last season | 14 of 3441%needs 48% to break even | 28%–55% | 6 points shortwon 41%, needs 48% | 29.5points, rebounds and assists |
| Every game | 16 of 3644%needs 48% to break even | 32%–58% | 3 points shortwon 44%, needs 48% | 30points, rebounds and assists |
Tonight MIL plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, on a back-to-back, against PHI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 9 of 18 on the road.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + reb + ast in each game against over 30.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + reb + ast | Beat 30.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 43 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 35 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 | 32 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 23 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 23 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 25 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 28 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 37 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 38 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 19 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 24 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 25 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 35 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 34 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 33 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 21 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 34 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 51 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 34 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 27 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 23 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 36 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 22 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 25 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 31 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 27 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 28 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 24 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 32 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 29 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 30 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 24 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 27 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 30 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 41 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 31 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 26.5 pts + reb + astTyler Herro · Today 7:40 PM ET | +145at Bovada | 12 of 34· last season35%needs 41% to break even7 of 18 on the road | Record is last season's | -18.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 27.5 pts + reb + astTyler Herro · Today 7:40 PM ET | +120at Bovada | 15 of 34· last season44%needs 45% to break even7 of 18 on the road | Record is last season's | -20.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 28.5 pts + reb + astTyler Herro · Today 7:40 PM ET | +100at Bovada | 17 of 34· last season50%needs 50% to break even7 of 18 on the road | Record is last season's | -20.1Not beating its price | |
| Under 29.5 pts + reb + astTyler Herro · Today 7:40 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 18 of 34· last season53%needs 52% to break even8 of 18 on the road | Record is last season's | -21.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 30.5 pts + reb + astTyler Herro · Today 7:40 PM ET | -145at Bovada | 20 of 34· last season59%needs 59% to break even9 of 18 on the road | Record is last season's | -26.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.