This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 48% to break even | 0%–35% | 48 points shortwon 0%, needs 48% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 48% to break even | 7%–46% | 28 points shortwon 20%, needs 48% |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 1513%needs 48% to break even | 5%–33% | 34 points shortwon 13%, needs 48% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 48% to break even | 0%–73% | 48 points shortwon 0%, needs 48% |
| Last season | 20 of 5636%needs 48% to break even | 26%–47% | 12 points shortwon 36%, needs 48% |
| Every game | 20 of 5735%needs 48% to break even | 26%–46% | 13 points shortwon 35%, needs 48% |
Tonight LAL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against LAC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + reb in each game against under 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + reb | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 3 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 18 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 20 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 20 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 20 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | 21 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 9 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | 27 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 27 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 24 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 19 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 22 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 12 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 4 | 23 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 18 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 18 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 27 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 pts + rebZiaire Williams · Today 10:10 PM ET | -200at Bovada | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 67% to break even | -5.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 9.5 pts + rebZiaire Williams · Today 10:10 PM ET | -140at FanDuel | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 58% to break even | 1.1Slight | ||
| Over 10.5 pts + rebZiaire Williams · Today 10:10 PM ET | +100at FanDuel | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 50% to break even | -2.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.