This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 48% to break even | 65%–100% | 52 points betterwon 100%, needs 48% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 48% to break even | 54%–93% | 32 points betterwon 80%, needs 48% |
| Last 15 games | 13 of 1587%needs 48% to break even | 67%–95% | 39 points betterwon 87%, needs 48% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 48% to break even | 27%–100% | 52 points betterwon 100%, needs 48% |
| Last season | 33 of 5659%needs 48% to break even | 48%–69% | 11 points betterwon 59%, needs 48% |
| Every game | 34 of 5760%needs 48% to break even | 49%–70% | 12 points betterwon 60%, needs 48% |
Tonight LAL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against LAC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + ast in each game against over 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + ast | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 13 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 3 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 10 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 18 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 21 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 17 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 21 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 18 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 10 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 9 | 15 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 23 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 18 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 18 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 27 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 20 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | 13 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 5 | 1 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 20 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jan 27 | 16 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 21 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 16 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 15 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 12 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 12 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 4 | 24 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 15 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 13 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | 15 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 11 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 13 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 25 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.