This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 55% to break even | 44%–95% | 25 points betterwon 80%, needs 55% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 55% to break even | 54%–93% | 25 points betterwon 80%, needs 55% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 55% to break even | 52%–87% | 19 points betterwon 73%, needs 55% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 55% to break even | 0%–73% | 55 points shortwon 0%, needs 55% |
| Last season | 60 of 9166%needs 55% to break even | 57%–74% | 11 points betterwon 66%, needs 55% |
| Every game | 60 of 9265%needs 55% to break even | 57%–73% | 10 points betterwon 65%, needs 55% |
Tonight ORL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
3Q total points in each game against under 61.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 3Q total points | Beat 61.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 65 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 3 | 38 | +23.5 | Won | |
| May 1 | 35 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Apr 29 | 42 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Apr 27 | 38 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 51 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Apr 22 | 54 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | 49 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Apr 17 | 68 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 15 | 39 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 62 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 61 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 68 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 50 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 57 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 74 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 52 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 62 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 68 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | 59 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 62 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 75 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 42 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 62 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 63 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 70 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 55 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | 58 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 11 | 61 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 48 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 58 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 57 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 67 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 49 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 65 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 50 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | 67 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 56 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 67 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 68 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 56 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 62 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 59 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 53 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 44 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Jan 30 | 78 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 60 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 26 | 55 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 49 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 61 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 56 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 38 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 72 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 55 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 52 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 76 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 80 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 68 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 55 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 59 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 67 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 68 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 56 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 22 | 57 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 54 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 62 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 13 | 57 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 9 | 59 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 46 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 49 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | 58 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 64 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 56 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 25 | 58 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 62 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 61 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 20 | 59 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 18 | 51 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 56 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | 49 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 60 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 10 | 48 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 50 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 54 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 4 | 64 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 47 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | 48 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | 64 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 63 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 62 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 52 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 47 | +14.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 61.5 3rd quarter totalOrlando Magic · Tomorrow 7:10 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 31 of 91· last season34%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -38.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 63.5 3rd quarter totalOrlando Magic · Tomorrow 7:10 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 21 of 91· last season23%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 65.5 3rd quarter totalOrlando Magic · Tomorrow 7:10 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 17 of 91· last season19%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.