This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 70% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 70% to break even | 65%–100% | 30 points betterwon 100%, needs 70% |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 70% to break even | 65%–98% | 20 points betterwon 90%, needs 70% |
| Last 15 games | 13 of 1587%needs 70% to break even | 67%–95% | 17 points betterwon 87%, needs 70% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 70% to break even | 27%–100% | 30 points betterwon 100%, needs 70% |
| Last season | 38 of 6261%needs 70% to break even | 51%–71% | 8 points shortwon 61%, needs 70% |
Tonight NO plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against UTAH. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against under 22.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 16.5 pointsZion Williamson |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes double-doubleZion Williamson |
| Every game | 39 of 6362%needs 70% to break even | 52%–71% | 8 points shortwon 62%, needs 70% |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 22.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 22 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 5 | 17 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 13 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 15 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 18 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 22 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 26 | 21 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 22 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 25 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 15 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 14 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | 27 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 13 | 21 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 11 | 19 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 20 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 19 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 23 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 24 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 4 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 20 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 21 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 32 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 25 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 18 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Feb 6 | 29 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 20 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 2 | 14 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 11 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Jan 30 | 21 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 27 | 21 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | 24 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 24 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | 4 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 20 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 16 | 27 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 14 | 25 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 12 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 22 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 31 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 22 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 15 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 12 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 35 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 31 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 32 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 22 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 26 | 20 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 24 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 29 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 9 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 18 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 25 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 17 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 29 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 22 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 19 | 14 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 20 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 31 | 29 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 11 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 27 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 27 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| -230at Bovada |
| 48 of 62· last season77%needs 70% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -19.1Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 pointsZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | -172at DraftKings | 46 of 62· last season74%needs 63% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.3Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 pointsZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | -135at Bovada | 43 of 62· last season69%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.6Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 pointsZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 41 of 62· last season66%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.6Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 pointsZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | +115at Bovada | 35 of 62· last season56%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.4Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 pointsZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | +140at Bovada | 30 of 62· last season48%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.5Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 pointsZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | +172at Caesars | 24 of 62· last season39%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.8Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 pointsZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | +215at Caesars | 23 of 62· last season37%needs 32% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +1000at Fanatics |
| 6 of 62· last season10%needs 9% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -7.3Not beating its price |
| Under 29.5 pts + reb + astZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | -160at Bovada | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 62% to break even | -7.6Not beating its price |
| Under 28.5 pts + reb + astZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | -130at Bovada | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 57% to break even | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 assistsZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | -251at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 72% to break even | -14.1Not beating its price |
| Under 25.5 pts + rebZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | -130at Bovada | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 57% to break even | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 reb + astZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | +110at DraftKings | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 48% to break even | -14.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 assistsZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | -125at Bovada | 37 of 62· last season60%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.0Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 reboundsZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | -275at Bovada | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 73% to break even | -15.4Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 reb + astZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | +185at Bovada | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 35% to break even | -16.5Not beating its price |
| Under 4.5 reboundsZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | +130at Bovada | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 43% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Under 26.5 pts + reb + astZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | +110at Bovada | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 48% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 reboundsZion Williamson · Today 9:40 PM ET | +118at FanDuel | 32 of 62· last season52%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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