This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 58% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 58% to break even | 5%–56% | 38 points shortwon 20%, needs 58% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 58% to break even | 7%–46% | 38 points shortwon 20%, needs 58% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 58% to break even | 17%–54% | 25 points shortwon 33%, needs 58% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 58% to break even | 0%–73% | 58 points shortwon 0%, needs 58% |
| Last season | 34 of 7645%needs 58% to break even | 36%–54% | 13 points shortwon 45%, needs 58% |
| Every game | 34 of 7744%needs 58% to break even | 35%–54% | 14 points shortwon 44%, needs 58% |
Tonight UTAH plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 6.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 6.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 11 | 18 | +11.5 | Won | |
| May 9 | 1 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| May 7 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 5 | 3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 1 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 29 | 0 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 2 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 24 | 12 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 23 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 12 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 19 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 10 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 21 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 11 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 1 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 0 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 9 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 19 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 2 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 12 | 16 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Feb 10 | 13 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | 12 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 9 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 2 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 10 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | 7 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 26 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 9 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 12 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 10 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 2 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 1 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 12 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 30 | 13 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 2 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 16 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 12 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 10 | 2 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 4 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 25 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 10 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | 2 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 2 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 2 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 9 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 15 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Oct 31 | 2 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 2 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 21 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 pointsJaxson Hayes · Today 9:40 PM ET | +175at Bovada | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 36% to break even | -3.7Not beating its price | ||
| Under 6.5 pointsJaxson Hayes · Today 9:40 PM ET | +120at Bovada | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 45% to break even | 2.2Slight | ||
| Under 7.5 pointsJaxson Hayes · Today 9:40 PM ET | -120at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 55% to break even | -6.1Not beating its price | ||
| Under 8.5 pointsJaxson Hayes · Today 9:40 PM ET | -170at Bovada | 51 of 76· last season67%needs 63% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 9.5 pointsJaxson Hayes · Today 9:40 PM ET | -240at Bovada | 55 of 76· last season72%needs 71% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.