This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 32% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 32% to break even | 5%–56% | 12 points shortwon 20%, needs 32% | 26.2points and rebounds |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 32% to break even | 13%–56% | 2 points shortwon 30%, needs 32% | 28.7points and rebounds |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 32% to break even | 13%–48% | 6 points shortwon 27%, needs 32% | 27.8points and rebounds |
| This season | 1 of 250%needs 32% to break even | 12%–88% | 18 points betterwon 50%, needs 32% | 28points and rebounds |
| Last season | 23 of 8527%needs 32% to break even | 20%–36% | 5 points shortwon 27%, needs 32% | 26points and rebounds |
| Every game | 24 of 8728%needs 32% to break even | 20%–36% | 5 points shortwon 28%, needs 32% | 26.1points and rebounds |
Tonight HOU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, on a back-to-back, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 13 of 44 on the road.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + reb in each game against over 29.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + reb | Beat 29.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 30 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 1 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 29 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 24 | 37 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 24 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 50 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 24 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 33 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | 29 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 20 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 42 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 37 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | 31 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 13 | 35 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 11 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 30 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 33 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 28 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | 34 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | 31 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 14 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 23 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 16 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 18 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 10 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 13 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 15 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 2 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 29 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 16 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 32 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 26 | 16 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 24 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 23 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | 28 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 28 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 44 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 33 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 36 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 24 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 32 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 28 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | 33 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 28 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 20 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 29 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | 29 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 13 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 35 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | 32 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 31 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 13 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 24 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 35 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 29 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 19 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 38 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 32 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 16 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 14 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 21 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 25.5 pts + rebAmen Thompson · Today 8:40 PM ETWithout VanVleet | -108at FanDuel | 38 of 85· last season45%needs 52% to break even21 of 44 on the road | Record is last season's | -28.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 14.5 pointsAmen Thompson · Today 8:40 PM ETWithout VanVleet | -199at Kalshi | 15 of 15· last 15 games100%needs 67% to break even31 of 44 on the road | Won last 15 in a row | 7.4Good | |
| Over 15.5 pointsAmen Thompson · Today 8:40 PM ETWithout VanVleet | -175at Fanatics | 14 of 15· last 15 games93%needs 64% to break even29 of 44 on the road | -0.4Not beating its price | ||
| Gets a triple-doubleAmen Thompson · Today 8:40 PM ETWithout VanVleet | +1800at Fanatics | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 5% to break even0 of 44 on the road | -5.0Not beating its price | ||
| Over 16.5 pointsAmen Thompson · Today 8:40 PM ETWithout VanVleet | -120at BetMGM | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 55% to break even25 of 44 on the road | -6.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 17.5 pointsAmen Thompson · Today 8:40 PM ETWithout VanVleet | +105at Fanatics | 48 of 85· last season56%needs 49% to break even22 of 44 on the road | Record is last season's | -8.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 22.5 pts + astAmen Thompson · Today 8:40 PM ETWithout VanVleet | -120at DraftKings | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 55% to break even26 of 44 on the road | -8.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 19.5 pointsAmen Thompson · Today 8:40 PM ETWithout VanVleet | +175at BetMGM | 35 of 85· last season41%needs 36% to break even16 of 44 on the road | Record is last season's | -13.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 6.5 assistsAmen Thompson · Today 8:40 PM ETWithout VanVleet | +190at BetMGM | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 34% to break even15 of 44 on the road | -13.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 24.5 pts + astAmen Thompson · Today 8:40 PM ETWithout VanVleet | +150at BetMGM | 38 of 85· last season45%needs 40% to break even18 of 44 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 8.5 reboundsAmen Thompson · Today 8:40 PM ETWithout VanVleet | -129at DraftKings | 53 of 85· last season62%needs 56% to break even24 of 44 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 5.5 assistsAmen Thompson · Today 8:40 PM ETWithout VanVleet | +146at Kalshi | 40 of 85· last season47%needs 41% to break even22 of 44 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 18.5 pointsAmen Thompson · Today 8:40 PM ETWithout VanVleet | +130at Fanatics | 39 of 85· last season46%needs 43% to break even17 of 44 on the road | Record is last season's | -15.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.