This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 51% to break even | 44%–95% | 29 points betterwon 80%, needs 51% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 51% to break even | 54%–93% | 29 points betterwon 80%, needs 51% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 51% to break even | 52%–87% | 22 points betterwon 73%, needs 51% |
| Last season | 38 of 7253%needs 51% to break even | 43%–62% | 2 points betterwon 53%, needs 51% |
| Every game | 38 of 7253%needs 51% to break even | 43%–62% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the underdog, against OKC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Threes in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 threesNikola Jokic · Today 9:40 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 44.5 pts + reb + astNikola Jokic |
| 2 points betterwon 53%, needs 51% |
| Date | Opponent | Threes | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 27 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 11 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 9 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 2 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 27 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 25 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 15 | STARS | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 11 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 30 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 25 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | 5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 23 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| -103at Kalshi |
| 34 of 72· last season47%needs 51% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -33.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -154at Kalshi |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 61% to break even |
| -1.0Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 reboundsNikola Jokic · Today 9:40 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 41% to break even | -5.3Not beating its price |
| Over 11.5 assistsNikola Jokic · Today 9:40 PM ET | +280at Kalshi | 31 of 72· last season43%needs 26% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.3Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 pointsNikola Jokic · Today 9:40 PM ET | -250at Bovada | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 71% to break even | -6.0Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 reboundsNikola Jokic · Today 9:40 PM ET | +190at BetMGM | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 34% to break even | -6.1Not beating its price |
| Under 28.5 pointsNikola Jokic · Today 9:40 PM ET | -180at Bovada | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 64% to break even | -7.0Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 assistsNikola Jokic · Today 9:40 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 45 of 72· last season63%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.5Not beating its price |
| Over 54.5 pts + reb + astNikola Jokic · Today 9:40 PM ET | +296at Kalshi | 23 of 72· last season32%needs 25% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.0Not beating its price |
| Over 11.5 reboundsNikola Jokic · Today 9:40 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 61% to break even | -8.2Not beating its price |
| Under 29.5 pointsNikola Jokic · Today 9:40 PM ET | -215at Bovada | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 68% to break even | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 reb + astNikola Jokic · Today 9:40 PM ET | -110at BetMGM | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 52% to break even | -10.1Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 pts + reb + astNikola Jokic · Today 9:40 PM ET | -110at Bovada | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 52% to break even | -10.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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