This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 43% to break even | 5%–56% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 43% to break even | 7%–46% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 43% to break even | 8%–41% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 43% to break even | 27%–100% | 57 points betterwon 100%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 13 of 4927%needs 43% to break even | 18%–38% | 16 points shortwon 27%, needs 43% |
| Every game |
Tonight BOS plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against NY. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 pointsPaul George · Today 7:10 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 threesPaul George · Today 7:10 PM ET |
| 19%–39% |
| 15 points shortwon 28%, needs 43% |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 19.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 38 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 10 | 7 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| May 8 | 15 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| May 6 | 19 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 4 | 17 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 13 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 30 | 23 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 28 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 24 | 18 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 21 | 19 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 17 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 15 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 11 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 21 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 7 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 23 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 39 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 19 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 26 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 28 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 15 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 32 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 9 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 10 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | 14 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 14 | 17 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 15 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 18 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 23 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 8 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 15 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 14 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 30 | 17 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 12 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 15 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 19 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 7 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 35 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Dec 12 | 23 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 12 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 11 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 14 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 10 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | 21 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | 9 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| +166at Kalshi |
| 16 of 49· last season33%needs 38% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -24.5Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 pointsPaul George · Today 7:10 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 36 of 49· last season73%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -137at Kalshi |
| 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 58% to break even |
| -7.1Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 threesPaul George · Today 7:10 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 39% to break even | -10.1Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 assistsPaul George · Today 7:10 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 65% to break even | -17.2Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 reboundsPaul George · Today 7:10 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 40 of 49· last season82%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 reboundsPaul George · Today 7:10 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 40% to break even | -22.9Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 assistsPaul George · Today 7:10 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 23 of 49· last season47%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.7Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 threesPaul George · Today 7:10 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 23 of 49· last season47%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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