This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 40% to break even | 14%–73% | evenwon 40%, needs 40% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 40% to break even | 13%–56% | 10 points shortwon 30%, needs 40% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 40% to break even | 13%–48% | 13 points shortwon 27%, needs 40% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 40% to break even | 0%–73% | 40 points shortwon 0%, needs 40% |
| Last season | 10 of 2245%needs 40% to break even | 29%–62% | 5 points betterwon 45%, needs 40% |
| Every game |
Tonight BOS plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against NY. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Assists in each game against under 5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Assists | Beat 5.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 11 | |||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5.5 assistsJayson Tatum · Today 7:10 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 24.5 pointsJayson Tatum · Today 7:10 PM ET |
| 28%–60% |
| 3 points betterwon 43%, needs 40% |
| -5.5 |
| Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 30 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 28 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Apr 26 | 11 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Apr 24 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Apr 21 | 9 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Apr 19 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Apr 9 | 8 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Apr 7 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Apr 5 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Apr 3 | 9 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Apr 1 | 11 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Mar 29 | 8 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Mar 27 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 25 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 22 | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| Mar 20 | 0 | +5.5 | Won |
| Mar 18 | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| Mar 16 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 14 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 10 | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| Mar 8 | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| Mar 6 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost |
| -179at Polymarket |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 64% to break even |
| -18.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +119at Kalshi |
| 16 of 22· last season73%needs 46% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -2.7Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 reboundsJayson Tatum · Today 7:10 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 14 of 22· last season64%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -2.9Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 threesJayson Tatum · Today 7:10 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 46% to break even | -13.8Not beating its price |
| Under 39.5 pts + reb + astJayson Tatum · Today 7:10 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 11 of 22· last season50%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.0Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 pts + reb + astJayson Tatum · Today 7:10 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 60% to break even | -21.0Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 threesJayson Tatum · Today 7:10 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 11 of 22· last season50%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.0Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 pointsJayson Tatum · Today 7:10 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 36% to break even | -26.3Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 pointsJayson Tatum · Today 7:10 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 60% to break even | -35.6Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 reboundsJayson Tatum · Today 7:10 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 65% to break even | -36.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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