This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 41% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 41% to break even | 14%–73% | 1 points shortwon 40%, needs 41% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 41% to break even | 7%–46% | 21 points shortwon 20%, needs 41% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 41% to break even | 8%–41% | 21 points shortwon 20%, needs 41% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 41% to break even | 0%–73% | 41 points shortwon 0%, needs 41% |
| Last season | 21 of 8226%needs 41% to break even | 19%–34% | 16 points shortwon 26%, needs 41% |
| Every game | 21 of 8325%needs 41% to break even | 18%–34% | 16 points shortwon 25%, needs 41% |
Tonight CHI plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against chi -3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 230.5 game total, CHI gamesChicago Bulls · Tomorrow 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton |
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | -43 | -46.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 12 | -21 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | -24 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 11 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 31 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | -10 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | -40 | -43.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | -19 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | -15 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | -1 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | -18 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | -20 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | -5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | -30 | -33.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 25 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Mar 13 | -11 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | -12 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | -16 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | -8 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 23 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | -9 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | -32 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | -6 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | -16 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | -9 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | -19 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | -8 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | -16 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | -16 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | -16 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | -43 | -46.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | -3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | -3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 26 | -11 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 28 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 22 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Jan 16 | -3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 14 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | -6 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 18 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | -15 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 5 | -14 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | -13 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 16 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | -35 | -38.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | -9 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 11 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 17 | 16 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | -10 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 12 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | -32 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | -15 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | -10 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | -5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | -2 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | -7 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | -13 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | -36 | -39.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | -3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | -11 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | -4 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | -6 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | -16 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | -12 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 10 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | 13 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 12 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 36% to break even |
| -5.6Not beating its price |
| Under 232.5 game total, CHI gamesChicago Bulls · Tomorrow 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | +146at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 41% to break even | -5.8Not beating its price |
| Under 114.5 team totalChicago Bulls · Tomorrow 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | +166at Kalshi | 40 of 82· last season49%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.5Not beating its price |
| Under 233.5 game total, CHI gamesChicago Bulls · Tomorrow 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | +131at Polymarket | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 43% to break even | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Under 234.5 game total, CHI gamesChicago Bulls · Tomorrow 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | +124at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 45% to break even | -9.4Not beating its price |
| Under 112.5 team totalChicago Bulls · Tomorrow 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | +198at Kalshi | 33 of 82· last season40%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Under 235.5 game total, CHI gamesChicago Bulls · Tomorrow 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | +112at Polymarket | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 47% to break even | -11.2Not beating its price |
| Under 236.5 game total, CHI gamesChicago Bulls · Tomorrow 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | +107at Polymarket | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 48% to break even | -11.5Not beating its price |
| Under 237.5 game total, CHI gamesChicago Bulls · Tomorrow 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | +103at Polymarket | 44 of 82· last season54%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Under 116.5 team totalChicago Bulls · Tomorrow 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | +124at Kalshi | 45 of 82· last season55%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.9Not beating its price |
| Under 238.5 game total, CHI gamesChicago Bulls · Tomorrow 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | tS-105at theScore Bet | 47 of 82· last season57%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.9Not beating its price |
| Over 124.5 team totalChicago Bulls · Tomorrow 4:10 PM ETCHI without Claxton | +198at Kalshi | 24 of 82· last season29%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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