This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 41% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 41% to break even | 0%–35% | 41 points shortwon 0%, needs 41% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 41% to break even | 7%–46% | 21 points shortwon 20%, needs 41% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 41% to break even | 8%–41% | 21 points shortwon 20%, needs 41% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 41% to break even | 0%–73% | 41 points shortwon 0%, needs 41% |
| Last season | 8 of 3424%needs 41% to break even | 14%–37% | 17 points shortwon 24%, needs 41% |
| Every game | 8 of 35 |
Tonight MIL plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against CHI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 24.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 19.5 pointsTyler Herro · Today 4:10 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 reboundsTyler Herro · Today 4:10 PM ET |
| 13%–36% |
| 18 points shortwon 23%, needs 41% |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 24.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 24 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 | 23 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 5 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 15 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 14 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 18 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 30 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 31 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 11 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 18 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 18 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 25 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 21 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 20 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 10 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 25 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 33 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 25 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 18 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 25 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 14 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 14 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 24 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 23 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 19 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 21 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 20 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 20 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 24 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 29 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 24 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| +159at Kalshi |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 39% to break even |
| -6.6Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 pointsTyler Herro · Today 4:10 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 65% to break even | -4.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +114at Kalshi |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 47% to break even |
| -19.1Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 assistsTyler Herro · Today 4:10 PM ET | +116at Polymarket | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 46% to break even | -19.1Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 assistsTyler Herro · Today 4:10 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 25 of 34· last season74%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.6Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 reboundsTyler Herro · Today 4:10 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 22 of 34· last season65%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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