This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 52% to break even | 27%–86% | 8 points betterwon 60%, needs 52% | 17.8points and assists |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 52% to break even | 19%–65% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% | 21.2points and assists |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 52% to break even | 22%–61% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% | 21.9points and assists |
| This season | 2 of 2100%needs 52% to break even | 42%–100% | 48 points betterwon 100%, needs 52% | 13points and assists |
| Last season | 27 of 7436%needs 52% to break even | 28%–46% | 15 points shortwon 36%, needs 52% | 23.1points and assists |
| Every game | 29 of 7638%needs 52% to break even | 30%–48% | 14 points shortwon 38%, needs 52% | 22.8points and assists |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the favorite, after a loss, on a back-to-back, against CHA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 17 of 39 on the road.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + ast in each game against under 20.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + ast | Beat 20.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 7 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 19 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 | 7 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 32 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 10 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 21 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 31 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 29 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 24 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 36 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 21 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 23 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 86 | -65.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 23 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 27 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 32 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 31 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 8 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 23 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 23 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 34 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 7 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 34 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 27 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 33 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 10 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 15 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 10 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 16 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 15 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 12 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 14 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 19 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 9 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 21 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 12 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 27 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 16 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | 19 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 19 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 23 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 23 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 2 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 29 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 34 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 pts + astBam Adebayo · Today 6:10 PM ET | -118at BetRivers | 49 of 74· last season66%needs 54% to break even24 of 39 on the road | Record is last season's | -15.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 20.5 pts + astBam Adebayo · Today 6:10 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 47 of 74· last season64%needs 53% to break even22 of 39 on the road | Record is last season's | -15.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 24.5 pts + astBam Adebayo · Today 6:10 PM ET | +240at BetRivers | 29 of 74· last season39%needs 29% to break even14 of 39 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.