This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 25% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 25% to break even | 27%–86% | 35 points betterwon 60%, needs 25% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 25% to break even | 19%–65% | 15 points betterwon 40%, needs 25% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 25% to break even | 13%–48% | 2 points betterwon 27%, needs 25% |
| This season | 4 of 1331%needs 25% to break even | 15%–54% | 6 points betterwon 31%, needs 25% |
| Last season | 11 of 4226%needs 25% to break even | 17%–39% | 1 points betterwon 26%, needs 25% |
| Every game |
Tonight TOL plays on the road, as the favorite, against LEO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 27 on the road.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every Toluca game, newest first: whether it ended level.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 game total, TOL gamesToluca · Today 7:00 PM ET |
| 15 of 5527%needs 25% to break even |
| 19%–38% |
| 2 points betterwon 27%, needs 25% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| This season | |||
| Oct 21 | Draw | Won | |
| Oct 17 | Draw | Won | |
| Oct 9 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | Draw | Won | |
| Sep 20 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Sep 15 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | Decided by 3 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | Decided by 4 | Lost | |
| Aug 21 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Aug 15 | Draw | Won | |
| Aug 2 | Decided by 2 | Lost | |
| Jul 21 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Jul 18 | Decided by 2 | Lost | |
| Last season | |||
| May 10 | Decided by 2 | Lost | |
| May 3 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | Decided by 3 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | MAZ | Decided by 1 | Lost |
| Apr 18 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | Draw | Won | |
| Apr 4 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | Draw | Won | |
| Mar 14 | Draw | Won | |
| Mar 8 | Decided by 2 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | Decided by 2 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | Decided by 3 | Lost | |
| Feb 13 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | Draw | Won | |
| Jan 30 | Draw | Won | |
| Jan 17 | Draw | Won | |
| Jan 14 | Decided by 2 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | Draw | Won | |
| Nov 26 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | Decided by 2 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | Draw | Won | |
| Oct 26 | Draw | Won | |
| Oct 22 | Draw | Won | |
| Oct 18 | Decided by 4 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | Decided by 2 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | MAZ | Decided by 2 | Lost |
| Sep 24 | Decided by 4 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | Decided by 3 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | Decided by 2 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | Decided by 2 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | Draw | Won | |
| Aug 11 | Decided by 2 | Lost | |
| Jul 26 | Decided by 1 | Lost | |
| Jul 16 | Decided by 2 | Lost | |
| Jul 12 | Decided by 2 | Lost | |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 42% to break even7 of 27 on the road |
| -9.1Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 team totalToluca · Today 7:00 PM ET | -145at Polymarket | 9 of 13· this season69%needs 59% to break even13 of 27 on the road | Record is this season's | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 3 game total, TOL gamesToluca · Today 7:00 PM ET | PIN-115at Pinnacle | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 22 on the road | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Both teams score: No, TOL gamesToluca · Today 7:00 PM ET | +169at Polymarket | 19 of 42· last season45%needs 37% to break even16 of 27 on the road | Record is last season's | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 game total, TOL gamesToluca · Today 7:00 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 21 of 42· last season50%needs 39% to break even15 of 27 on the road | Record is last season's | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Both teams score: Yes, TOL gamesToluca · Today 7:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 67% to break even11 of 27 on the road | -18.6Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 game total, TOL gamesToluca · Today 7:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 9 of 13· this season69%needs 65% to break even12 of 27 on the road | Record is this season's | -20.8Not beating its price |
| Under 3 game total, TOL gamesToluca · Today 7:00 PM ET | PIN+103at Pinnacle | 21 of 37· last season57%needs 49% to break even15 of 22 on the road | Record is last season's | -23.7Not beating its price |
| TOL to win moneylineToluca · Today 7:00 PM ET | LVG+101at LowVig | 22 of 42· last season52%needs 50% to break even12 of 27 on the road | Record is last season's | -24.0Not beating its price |
| TOL -0.5 spreadToluca · Today 7:00 PM ET | LVG+101at LowVig | 22 of 42· last season52%needs 50% to break even12 of 27 on the road | Record is last season's | -24.0Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 team totalToluca · Today 7:00 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 19 of 42· last season45%needs 46% to break even14 of 27 on the road | Record is last season's | -24.5Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 game total, TOL gamesToluca · Today 7:00 PM ET | -158at Polymarket | 26 of 42· last season62%needs 61% to break even20 of 27 on the road | Record is last season's | -29.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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