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Won4 of 5last 5 games · 80%
Best price+134Kalshi
Price needs42.7%wins to break even
Every game23 of 55this season and last
Trend score-9.6Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 43% to break even | 44%–95% | 37 points betterwon 80%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 43% to break even | 35%–81% | 17 points betterwon 60%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 43% to break even | 28%–67% | 4 points betterwon 47%, needs 43% |
| This season | 7 of 1354%needs 43% to break even | 32%–74% | 11 points betterwon 54%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 16 of 4238%needs 43% to break even | 27%–51% | 5 points shortwon 38%, needs 43% |
| Every game | 23 of 5542%needs 43% to break even | 32%–53% | 1 points shortwon 42%, needs 43% |
Games like tonight
Tonight TOL plays on the road, as the favorite, against LEO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Toluca @ León: over 3.51 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Total goals in each game against over 3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total goals | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 |  TIJ | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 17 |  ASL | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Oct 9 |  UANL | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 26 |  CAZ | 6 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 |  SAN | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 15 |  PUE | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 12 |  ATS | 7 | +3.5 | Won |
| Aug 30 |  JUA | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Aug 21 |  QRO | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Aug 15 |  ATL | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Aug 2 |  NCX | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jul 21 |  UNAM | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jul 18 |  GDL | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| May 10 |  PAC | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| May 3 | PAC | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Apr 25 |  LEO | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Apr 22 | MAZ | 7 | +3.5 | Won |
| Apr 18 |  AME | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Apr 12 | ASL | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Apr 4 | QRO | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Mar 22 | PAC | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 14 | ATS | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 8 | JUA | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 3 | UNAM | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 28 | GDL | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Feb 21 | NCX | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 13 | TIJ | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Feb 7 | CAZ | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 30 | PUE | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Jan 17 | UANL | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Jan 14 | SAN | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 10 |  MTY | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 | UANL | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 11 | UANL | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 6 | MTY | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 3 | MTY | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 29 | JUA | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 26 | JUA | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 8 | AME | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | ATS | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | PAC | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 22 | TIJ | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 18 | QRO | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | LEO | 6 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | MAZ | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 24 | MTY | 8 | +4.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | GDL | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | PUE | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Aug 29 | ASL | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Aug 23 | CAZ | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Aug 16 | UNAM | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Aug 11 | JUA | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jul 26 | UANL | 7 | +3.5 | Won |
| Jul 16 | SAN | 6 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jul 12 | NCX | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 game total, TOL gamesToluca · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET |  +146at Kalshi | 21 of 42· last season50%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.9Not beating its price | |
| Under 3.5 game total, TOL gamesToluca · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 26 of 42· last season62%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Toluca in this game
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL to win moneylineToluca · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET |  +105at BetMGM | 22 of 42· last season52%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.1Not beating its price | |
| TOL -0.5 spreadToluca · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | LVG+100at LowVig | 22 of 42· last season52%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.