This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 59% to break even | 44%–95% | 21 points betterwon 80%, needs 59% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 59% to break even | 44%–87% | 11 points betterwon 70%, needs 59% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 59% to break even | 52%–87% | 15 points betterwon 73%, needs 59% |
| This season | 22 of 3465%needs 59% to break even | 51%–77% | 6 points betterwon 65%, needs 59% |
| Last season | 25 of 3278%needs 59% to break even | 64%–88% |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against MIL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Hits allowed in each game against under 4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 hits allowedDrew Rasmussen |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6.5 strikeouts (pitcher)Drew Rasmussen |
| Every game | 47 of 6671%needs 59% to break even | 61%–79% | 13 points betterwon 71%, needs 59% |
| Date | Opponent | Hits allowed | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 12 | 8 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 1 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 22 | 1 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 17 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 11 | 8 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 19 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 12 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 7 | 2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 1 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 26 | 1 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jul 21 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 14 | NL | 0 | +4.5 | Won |
| Jul 9 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 4 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 28 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 22 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 16 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 10 | 2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 5 | 1 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 30 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 17 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 11 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 5 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 29 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 24 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 1 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 26 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Sep 25 | 2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 2 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 27 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 20 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 13 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 8 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 2 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 28 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 22 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 15 | NL | 0 | +4.5 | Won |
| Jul 11 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 6 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 30 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 25 | 2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 19 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 14 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 8 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 3 | 1 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 28 | 1 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 23 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 11 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 6 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 30 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 24 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| +119at Kalshi |
| 12 of 34· this season35%needs 46% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -30.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +181at Kalshi |
| 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 36% to break even |
| -14.4Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 strikeouts (pitcher)Drew Rasmussen · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 50% to break even | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Under 4.5 strikeouts (pitcher)Drew Rasmussen · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 17 of 32· last season53%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.0Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 strikeouts (pitcher)Drew Rasmussen · Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 27 of 32· last season84%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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