This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 50% to break even | 27%–86% | 10 points betterwon 60%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 50% to break even | 44%–87% | 20 points betterwon 70%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 50% to break even | 52%–87% | 23 points betterwon 73%, needs 50% |
| This season | 41 of 5377%needs 50% to break even | 67%–85% | 27 points betterwon 77%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 28 of 4661%needs 50% to break even | 49%–72% | 10 points betterwon 61%, needs 50% |
| Every game | 69 of 9970%needs 50% to break even | 62%–77% | 19 points betterwon 70%, needs 50% |
Tonight GS plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against gs +4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat -4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | -26 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | -14 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 17 | 4 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Oct 9 | 10 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Oct 7 | 2 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 11 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Oct 2 | 4 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Sep 30 | -8 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 24 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Sep 24 | 1 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Sep 22 | -8 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 13 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Sep 18 | 16 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 17 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Aug 27 | 19 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Aug 26 | 25 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | 14 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Aug 21 | -3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 19 | -11 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 17 | 8 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Aug 12 | 20 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Aug 9 | 6 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Aug 7 | 18 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Aug 4 | 11 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Aug 2 | 17 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Jul 29 | -2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jul 20 | -8 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 18 | 5 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jul 15 | 13 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Jul 10 | 15 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Jul 8 | 8 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Jul 6 | 13 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Jul 4 | 5 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jun 28 | 9 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Jun 26 | 3 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jun 24 | 11 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Jun 21 | -19 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 19 | -6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 17 | 11 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Jun 15 | 20 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Jun 12 | 4 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jun 9 | 6 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jun 6 | -5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 4 | -3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 2 | 18 | +22.5 | Won | |
| May 31 | -10 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| May 28 | 2 | +6.5 | Won | |
| May 25 | 27 | +31.5 | Won | |
| May 22 | -8 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 21 | 17 | +21.5 | Won | |
| May 13 | -6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | 16 | +20.5 | Won | |
| May 8 | 11 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Sep 17 | -1 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | -29 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 11 | -19 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 9 | -1 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | -6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 4 | 4 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Sep 2 | 8 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Aug 31 | 12 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 37 | +41.5 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | 9 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Aug 22 | -9 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | -7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 17 | -16 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 15 | 31 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Aug 13 | 5 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Aug 11 | 17 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Aug 9 | 13 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Aug 6 | -6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 3 | -24 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 1 | 7 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Jul 31 | 1 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jul 29 | 2 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jul 27 | -31 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 25 | 10 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Jul 16 | -9 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 14 | -1 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jul 12 | -2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jul 9 | 19 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Jul 7 | -9 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 5 | -11 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 29 | 27 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Jun 27 | 5 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jun 25 | -3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 22 | 24 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Jun 19 | 11 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Jun 17 | -9 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 14 | 6 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jun 9 | 8 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Jun 7 | 27 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Jun 5 | -9 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 1 | -11 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| May 29 | -5 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 27 | -28 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| May 23 | 9 | +13.5 | Won | |
| May 21 | 2 | +6.5 | Won | |
| May 16 | -17 | -12.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.