This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 50% to break even | 27%–86% | 10 points betterwon 60%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 50% to break even | 27%–73% | evenwon 50%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 50% to break even | 39%–78% | 10 points betterwon 60%, needs 50% |
| This season | 4 of 757%needs 50% to break even | 29%–81% | 7 points betterwon 57%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 18 of 3847%needs 50% to break even | 35%–60% | 3 points shortwon 47%, needs 50% |
| Every game | 22 of 4549%needs 50% to break even | 37%–61% | 1 points shortwon 49%, needs 50% |
Tonight NAP plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against ROMA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total goals in each game against under 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 game total, NAP gamesNapoli · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAP to win moneylineNapoli · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET |
| Date | Opponent | Total goals | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 22 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | PIS | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| May 11 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | CRE | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Apr 18 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | VER | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 22 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 15 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | VER | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 4 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | CRE | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 28 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 28 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 22 | PIS | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 23 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| 20 of 38· last season53%needs 52% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -23.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 23 of 38· last season61%needs 35% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -5.8Not beating its price |
| NAP 0 spreadNapoli · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | PIN+106at Pinnacle | 23 of 31· last season74%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.7Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 team totalNapoli · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +149at Polymarket | 20 of 38· last season53%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.1Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 team totalNapoli · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | -179at Polymarket | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 64% to break even | -29.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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