This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 67% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 67% to break even | 44%–95% | 13 points betterwon 80%, needs 67% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 67% to break even | 35%–81% | 7 points shortwon 60%, needs 67% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 67% to break even | 39%–78% | 7 points shortwon 60%, needs 67% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 67% to break even | 35%–88% | evenwon 67%, needs 67% |
| Last season | 8 of 1747%needs 67% to break even | 29%–66% | 19 points shortwon 47%, needs 67% |
| Every game | 12 of 2352%needs 67% to break even | 36%–68% | 14 points shortwon 52%, needs 67% |
Tonight LV plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against LAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
4Q total points in each game against over 10.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 4Q total points | Beat 10.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 10.5 4th quarter totalLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV -0.5 2nd quarter spreadLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |
| 27 |
| +16.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 11 | 17 | +6.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 34 | +23.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 13 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 9 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 0 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 14 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | 14 | +3.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Dec 7 | 13 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | 17 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 23 | 17 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 17 | 9 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 6 | 0 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | 31 | +20.5 | Won |
| Oct 19 | 0 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Oct 12 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 3 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Sep 28 | 12 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 21 | 21 | +10.5 | Won |
| Sep 15 | 3 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 | 6 | -4.5 | Lost |
| 9 of 17· last season53%needs 42% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -17.9Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 4th quarter totalLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -105at Polymarket | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 4th quarter totalLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 61% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 39% to break even |
| -6.5Not beating its price |
| Under 23.5 1st half totalLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.9Not beating its price |
| LV -2.5 2nd quarter spreadLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 36% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Under 44.5 game total, LV gamesLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.3Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 team totalLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.4Not beating its price |
| Under 45.5 game total, LV gamesLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.0Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 3rd quarter totalLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 36% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.0Not beating its price |
| Under 46.5 game total, LV gamesLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +121at Polymarket | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.8Not beating its price |
| LV -2.5 1st half spreadLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 35% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.8Not beating its price |
| LV +0.5 1st half spreadLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 48% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.5Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 1st half team totalLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.6Not beating its price |
| LV +4 spreadLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -105at Hard Rock | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 51% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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