This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 43% to break even | 5%–56% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 43% to break even | 35%–81% | 17 points betterwon 60%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 43% to break even | 46%–83% | 24 points betterwon 67%, needs 43% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 43% to break even | 12%–65% | 9 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 12 of 1771%needs 43% to break even | 51%–85% | 28 points betterwon 71%, needs 43% |
| Every game | 14 of 2361%needs 43% to break even | 44%–76% | 18 points betterwon 61%, needs 43% |
Tonight LV plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against LAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against under 45.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 44.5 game total, LV gamesLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV -0.5 2nd quarter spreadLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |
| 63 |
| -17.5 |
| Lost |
| Oct 11 | 62 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 57 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 62 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 40 | +5.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 40 | +5.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 26 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 44 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 21 | 44 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 | 31 | +14.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 | 41 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | 45 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 23 | 34 | +11.5 | Won |
| Nov 17 | 49 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 6 | 17 | +28.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 | 59 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 | 31 | +14.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 | 30 | +15.5 | Won |
| Oct 5 | 46 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 28 | 49 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | 65 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Sep 15 | 29 | +16.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | 33 | +12.5 | Won |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 64% to break even |
| -30.3Not beating its price |
| Over 45.5 game total, LV gamesLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 62% to break even | -30.5Not beating its price |
| Over 46.5 game total, LV gamesLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -139at Polymarket | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 58% to break even | -28.4Not beating its price |
| Over 47.5 game total, LV gamesLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 56% to break even | -26.4Not beating its price |
| Over 48.5 game total, LV gamesLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | NV+100at Novig | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 50% to break even | -21.7Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 game total, LV gamesLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 50% to break even | -23.7Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 game total, LV gamesLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +121at Polymarket | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 45% to break even | -20.0Not beating its price |
| Over 52.5 game total, LV gamesLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +137at Polymarket | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 42% to break even | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 53.5 game total, LV gamesLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 38% to break even | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Over 54.5 game total, LV gamesLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +169at Polymarket | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 37% to break even | -13.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 39% to break even |
| -6.5Not beating its price |
| Under 23.5 1st half totalLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.9Not beating its price |
| LV -2.5 2nd quarter spreadLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 35% to break even | Record is this season's | -7.3Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 team totalLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.4Not beating its price |
| Over 28.5 2nd half totalLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 34% to break even | -9.0Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 3rd quarter totalLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 36% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.0Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 1st half team totalLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.8Not beating its price |
| LV -2.5 1st half spreadLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 35% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.8Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 2nd quarter totalLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.5Not beating its price |
| LV +0.5 1st half spreadLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 48% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.5Not beating its price |
| LV +4 spreadLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -105at Hard Rock | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 51% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.9Not beating its price |
| LV +3.5 spreadLas Vegas Raiders · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -109at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -11.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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