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NFLPlayer propPassing yards
Matthew Stafford under 268.5 passing yards
Won8 of 20last season · 40%
Best price-115BetMGM
Price needs53.5%wins to break even
Every game10 of 26this season and last
Trend score-31.1Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 53% to break even | 19%–65% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 53% to break even | 17%–54% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 53% to break even | 12%–65% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 8 of 2040%needs 53% to break even | 24%–58% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Every game | 10 of 2638%needs 53% to break even | 25%–55% | 15 points shortwon 38%, needs 53% |
Games like tonight
Tonight LAR plays on the road, as the favorite, after a loss, against LV. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Matthew Stafford under 268.5 passing yards2 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Passing yards in each game against under 268.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 268.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  ARI | 222 | +46.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  BUF | 383 | -114.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  PHI | 317 | -48.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  DEN | 390 | -121.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  NYG | 327 | -58.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 |  SF | 155 | +113.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 21 |  SEA | 374 | -105.5 | Lost |
| Wk 20 |  CHI | 258 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 19 |  CAR | 304 | -35.5 | Lost |
| Wk 18 | ARI | 259 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 |  ATL | 269 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | SEA | 457 | -188.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 |  DET | 368 | -99.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | ARI | 281 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | CAR | 243 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 |  TB | 273 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | SEA | 130 | +138.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | SF | 280 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 |  NO | 281 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 |  JAX | 182 | +86.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 |  BAL | 181 | +87.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | SF | 389 | -120.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  IND | 375 | -106.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | PHI | 196 | +72.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  TEN | 298 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 |  HOU | 245 | +23.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 249.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |  -137at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 58% to break even | -7.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 265.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |  -120at Fanatics | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even | -12.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 268.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |  -114at BetRivers | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even | -11.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 270.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |  -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -13.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 271.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |  -112at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -12.7Not beating its price | ||
| Over 274.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 45% to break even | -6.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Matthew Stafford in this game
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.