This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 53% to break even | 19%–65% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 53% to break even | 28%–67% | 6 points shortwon 47%, needs 53% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 53% to break even | 12%–65% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 11 of 2055%needs 53% to break even | 37%–72% | 2 points betterwon 55%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight LAR plays on the road, as the favorite, after a loss, against LV. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Completions in each game against under 23.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Completions | Beat 23.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 23.5 completionsMatthew Stafford |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 299.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford |
| 35%–65% |
| 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| This season |
| Wk 6 | 25 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 40 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 32 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 30 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 22 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 15 | +8.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 21 | 22 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 20 | 20 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 19 | 24 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 18 | 25 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 22 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 29 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 24 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 22 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 18 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 25 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 15 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 24 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 24 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 21 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 17 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 30 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 29 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 19 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 23 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 21 | +2.5 | Won |
| -112at Kalshi |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even |
| -15.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +198at Kalshi |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 34% to break even |
| -1.9Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 17 of 20· last season85%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.7Not beating its price |
| Over 274.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 45% to break even | -6.8Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 58% to break even | -7.4Not beating its price |
| Over 268.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Over 265.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -120at Fanatics | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even | -12.1Not beating its price |
| Over 271.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -12.7Not beating its price |
| Over 270.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -13.1Not beating its price |
| Over 34.5 pass attemptsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even | -15.9Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -20.6Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 rushing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -165at FanDuel | 13 of 20· last season65%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.7Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 rushing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +126at FanDuel | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 44% to break even | -22.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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