This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 44% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 44% to break even | 19%–65% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 44% to break even | 22%–61% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 44% to break even | 12%–65% | 11 points shortwon 33%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 7 of 2035%needs 44% to break even | 20%–53% | 9 points shortwon 35%, needs 44% |
| Every game |
Tonight LAR plays on the road, as the favorite, after a loss, against LV. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against over 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 rushing yardsMatthew Stafford |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 299.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford |
| 21%–51% |
| 10 points shortwon 35%, needs 44% |
| 0 |
| -0.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 10 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 13 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 21 | 16 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 20 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 18 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 6 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | -6 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| -165at FanDuel |
| 13 of 20· last season65%needs 62% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -20.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +198at Kalshi |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 34% to break even |
| -1.9Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 17 of 20· last season85%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.7Not beating its price |
| Over 274.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 44% to break even | -6.0Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 58% to break even | -7.4Not beating its price |
| Over 268.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Over 265.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -120at Fanatics | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even | -12.1Not beating its price |
| Over 271.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -12.7Not beating its price |
| Over 270.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -13.1Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 completionsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -15.6Not beating its price |
| Over 34.5 pass attemptsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even | -15.9Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -20.6Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 14 of 20· last season70%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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