This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 50% to break even | 5%–56% | 30 points shortwon 20%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 50% to break even | 7%–46% | 30 points shortwon 20%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 50% to break even | 8%–41% | 30 points shortwon 20%, needs 50% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 50% to break even | 12%–65% | 16 points shortwon 33%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 6 of 2030%needs 50% to break even | 16%–48% | 20 points shortwon 30%, needs 50% |
| Every game |
Tonight LAR plays on the road, as the favorite, after a loss, against LV. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against under 249.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 249.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 passing TDsMatthew Stafford |
| 18%–47% |
| 19 points shortwon 31%, needs 50% |
| Beat 249.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 222 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 383 | -133.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 317 | -67.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 390 | -140.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 327 | -77.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 155 | +94.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 21 | 374 | -124.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 20 | 258 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 304 | -54.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 259 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 269 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 457 | -207.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 368 | -118.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 281 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 243 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 273 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 130 | +119.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 280 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 281 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 182 | +67.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 181 | +68.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 389 | -139.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 375 | -125.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 196 | +53.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 298 | -48.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 245 | +4.5 | Won | |
| -137at Kalshi |
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 58% to break even |
| -7.4Not beating its price |
| Over 265.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -120at Fanatics | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even | -12.1Not beating its price |
| Over 268.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Over 270.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -13.1Not beating its price |
| Over 271.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -12.7Not beating its price |
| Over 274.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 44% to break even | -6.0Not beating its price |
| Over 299.5 passing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 34% to break even | -1.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -131at Kalshi |
| 17 of 20· last season85%needs 57% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -4.7Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 completionsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -15.6Not beating its price |
| Over 34.5 pass attemptsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even | -15.9Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -20.6Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 rushing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -165at FanDuel | 13 of 20· last season65%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.7Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 rushing yardsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +126at FanDuel | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 44% to break even | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 14 of 20· last season70%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.2Not beating its price |
| Under 23.5 completionsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 11 of 20· last season55%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.1Not beating its price |
| Under 34.5 pass attemptsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 9 of 20· last season45%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.6Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsMatthew Stafford · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 48% to break even | -32.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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