This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 33% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 33% to break even | 0%–35% | 33 points shortwon 0%, needs 33% | 78.8rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 0 of 100%needs 33% to break even | 0%–21% | 33 points shortwon 0%, needs 33% | 72.1rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 157%needs 33% to break even | 2%–25% | 27 points shortwon 7%, needs 33% | 81.8rushing yards |
| This season | 0 of 60%needs 33% to break even | 0%–31% | 33 points shortwon 0%, needs 33% | 82rushing yards |
| Last season | 5 of 1729% |
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 1 of 11 on the road. Tonight: MIN allows 72.4 rushing yards a game to running backs, the 4th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 89.6): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIN defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against over 100.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 15%–49% |
| 4 points shortwon 29%, needs 33% |
| 93.2rushing yards |
| Every game | 5 of 2322%needs 33% to break even | 11%–38% | 12 points shortwon 22%, needs 33% | 90.3rushing yards |
| Beat 100.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 94 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 45 | -55.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 95 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 68 | -32.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 92 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 98 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 26 | -74.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 70 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 46 | -54.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 87 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 74 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 85 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 58 | -42.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 244 | +143.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 45 | -55.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 153 | +52.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 94 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 123 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 66 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 76 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 102 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 165 | +64.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 71 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| +159at Kalshi |
| 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 39% to break even4 of 11 on the road |
| -23.3Not beating its price |
| Under 67.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -115at BetMGM | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 53% to break even4 of 11 on the road | -34.7Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -112at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 53% to break even4 of 11 on the road | -29.7Not beating its price |
| Under 70.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even4 of 11 on the road | -27.1Not beating its price |
| Under 71.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -111at DraftKings | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even4 of 11 on the road | -25.6Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -168at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 63% to break even6 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -30.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +165at Fanatics |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 38% to break even4 of 11 on the road |
| -2.8Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +124at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 45% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -3.4Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +189at BetOnline | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 35% to break even3 of 11 on the road | -6.6Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -105at BetMGM | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 51% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -7.9Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +225at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 31% to break even3 of 11 on the road | -8.3Not beating its price |
| Over 15.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -193at DraftKings | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 66% to break even8 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -9.0Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +175at BetMGM | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even3 of 11 on the road | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 rush attemptsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -156at BetOnline | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 61% to break even6 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -12.6Not beating its price |
| Over 114.5 rush + rec yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +189at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 35% to break even3 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -13.2Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | -107at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 52% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.1Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +105at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 49% to break even6 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.2Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsJonathan Taylor · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Warren (TE) | +105at BetRivers | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 49% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is this season's | -15.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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