This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 59% to break even | 14%–73% | 19 points shortwon 40%, needs 59% | 4.8rush attempts |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 967%needs 59% to break even | 40%–86% | 8 points betterwon 67%, needs 59% | 5.4rush attempts |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 967%needs 59% to break even | 40%–86% | 8 points betterwon 67%, needs 59% | 5.4rush attempts |
| This season | 2 of 450%needs 59% to break even | 18%–82% | 9 points shortwon 50%, needs 59% | 5rush attempts |
| Last season |
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 5 at home. Tonight: IND allows 3.5 rush attempts a game to quarterbacks, the 12th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 3.9). How IND defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rush attempts in each game against over 4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 44%–95% |
| 21 points betterwon 80%, needs 59% |
| 5.8rush attempts |
| Every game | 6 of 967%needs 59% to break even | 40%–86% | 8 points betterwon 67%, needs 59% | 5.4rush attempts |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| -144at DraftKings |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 59% to break even3 of 5 at home |
| -25.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -130at Fanatics |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 57% to break even4 of 5 at home |
| -5.4Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +456at Kalshi | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 18% to break even1 of 5 at home | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 completionsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last season80%needs 52% to break even3 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 completionsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +125at DraftKings | 5 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped56%needs 44% to break even3 of 5 at home | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 5 of 5· last season100%needs 53% to break even3 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last season100%needs 63% to break even4 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -13.0Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +125at Fanatics | 4 of 5· last season80%needs 44% to break even2 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -13.5Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +153at DraftKings | 4 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped44%needs 40% to break even3 of 5 at home | -14.4Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 completionsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +135at BetOnline | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 43% to break even3 of 5 at home | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 36.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +151at BetOnline | 3 of 5· last season60%needs 40% to break even1 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -15.1Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 3 of 4· this season75%needs 42% to break even2 of 5 at home | Record is this season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Under 30.5 pass attemptsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -105at DraftKings | 3 of 4· this season75%needs 51% to break even2 of 5 at home | Record is this season's | -16.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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