This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 43% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 944%needs 43% to break even | 22%–70% | 2 points betterwon 44%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 944%needs 43% to break even | 22%–70% | 2 points betterwon 44%, needs 43% |
| This season | 2 of 450%needs 43% to break even | 18%–82% | 7 points betterwon 50%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 2 of 540%needs 43% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| Every game |
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Interceptions thrown in each game against over 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownKyler Murray |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 passing TDsKyler Murray |
| 4 of 944%needs 43% to break even |
| 22%–70% |
| 2 points betterwon 44%, needs 43% |
| Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| -168at Kalshi |
| 5 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped56%needs 63% to break even |
| -23.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -148at Kalshi |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 60% to break even |
| -7.4Not beating its price |
| Under 174.5 passing yardsKyler Murray · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 4 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped44%needs 35% to break even | -11.2Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last season100%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 completionsKyler Murray · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last season80%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.2Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsKyler Murray · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last season100%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.9Not beating its price |
| Under 30.5 pass attemptsKyler Murray · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 3 of 4· this season75%needs 55% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.4Not beating its price |
| Under 204.5 passing yardsKyler Murray · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 5 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped56%needs 53% to break even | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Under 205.5 passing yardsKyler Murray · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 5 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped56%needs 53% to break even | -19.2Not beating its price |
| Under 207.5 passing yardsKyler Murray · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 5 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped56%needs 53% to break even | -19.4Not beating its price |
| Under 200.5 passing yardsKyler Murray · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at Fanatics | 5 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped56%needs 53% to break even | -19.4Not beating its price |
| Under 203.5 passing yardsKyler Murray · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -117at BetRivers | 5 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped56%needs 54% to break even | -19.7Not beating its price |
| Under 199.5 passing yardsKyler Murray · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 4 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped44%needs 49% to break even | -20.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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