This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 43% to break even | 27%–86% | 17 points betterwon 60%, needs 43% | 23.6rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 933%needs 43% to break even | 14%–60% | 9 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% | 29.6rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 933%needs 43% to break even | 14%–60% | 9 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% | 29.6rushing yards |
| This season | 3 of 475%needs 43% to break even | 36%–94% | 32 points betterwon 75%, needs 43% | 23.3rushing yards |
| Last season | 0 of 50%needs 43% to break even | 0%–35% | 43 points shortwon 0%, needs 43% | 34.6rushing yards |
| Every game | 3 of 933%needs 43% to break even | 14%–60% | 9 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% | 29.6rushing yards |
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 5 at home. Tonight: IND allows 21.5 rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 9th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 17.3): a tough matchup for this bet. How IND defends quarterbacks
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Rushing yards in each game against under 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last season100%needs 64% to break even3 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -18.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 24.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 5 of 5· last season100%needs 53% to break even3 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -12.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 25.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last season80%needs 53% to break even2 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -19.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 26.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -109at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last season80%needs 52% to break even2 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -18.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 29.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +125at Fanatics | 4 of 5· last season80%needs 44% to break even2 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -13.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 36.5 rushing yardsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +151at BetOnline | 3 of 5· last season60%needs 40% to break even1 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -15.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.