This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 57% to break even | 0%–35% | 57 points shortwon 0%, needs 57% | 19.4rush attempts |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 57% to break even | 2%–35% | 47 points shortwon 10%, needs 57% | 16.8rush attempts |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 57% to break even | 17%–54% | 23 points shortwon 33%, needs 57% | 14.4rush attempts |
| This season | 0 of 50%needs 57% to break even | 0%–35% | 57 points shortwon 0%, needs 57% | 19.4rush attempts |
| Last season | 7 of 1258% |
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 7 at home. Tonight: IND allows 21 rush attempts a game to running backs, the 13th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 21.9). How IND defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rush attempts in each game against under 10.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 36%–78% |
| 2 points betterwon 58%, needs 57% |
| 11rush attempts |
| Every game | 7 of 1741%needs 57% to break even | 24%–61% | 16 points shortwon 41%, needs 57% | 13.5rush attempts |
| 25 |
| -14.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 20 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 17 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 23 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 18 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 21 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 14 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 6 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 9 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 16 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 9 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 9 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 5 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 5 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 8 | +2.5 | Won |
| +105at Kalshi |
| 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 49% to break even5 of 7 at home |
| -1.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -112at Kalshi |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 53% to break even6 of 7 at home |
| -1.0Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 rush + rec yardsAaron Jones Sr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 51% to break even5 of 7 at home | -2.0Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 rushing yardsAaron Jones Sr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 40% to break even4 of 7 at home | -2.9Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDAaron Jones Sr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 65% to break even4 of 7 at home | -15.0Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDAaron Jones Sr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 40% to break even3 of 7 at home | -21.2Not beating its price |
| Under 39.5 rushing yardsAaron Jones Sr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 5 of 12· last season42%needs 53% to break even1 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -32.6Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 rushing yardsAaron Jones Sr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 7 of 12· last season58%needs 67% to break even3 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -35.4Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 rush + rec yardsAaron Jones Sr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 4 of 12· last season33%needs 57% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -35.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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