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NFLPlayer propAnytime TD
Aaron Jones Sr. Anytime TD: No
Won11 of 15last 15 games · 73%
Best price-142Kalshi
Price needs58.7%wins to break even
Every game12 of 17this season and last
Trend score-10.4Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 59% to break even | 27%–86% | 1 points betterwon 60%, needs 59% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 59% to break even | 44%–87% | 11 points betterwon 70%, needs 59% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 59% to break even | 52%–87% | 15 points betterwon 73%, needs 59% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 59% to break even | 27%–86% | 1 points betterwon 60%, needs 59% |
| Last season | 9 of 1275%needs 59% to break even | 51%–90% | 16 points betterwon 75%, needs 59% |
| Every game | 12 of 1771%needs 59% to break even | 51%–85% | 12 points betterwon 71%, needs 59% |
Games like tonight
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Aaron Jones Sr. Anytime TD: No1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Anytime TD in each game against no, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Anytime TD | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 |  NO | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  MIA | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 |  TB | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  CHI | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  GB | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 |  DET | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 |  NYG | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 |  DAL | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 |  WSH | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 |  SEA | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | GB | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | CHI | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 |  BAL | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | DET | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 |  LAC | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  ATL | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | CHI | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDAaron Jones Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  +119at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 46% to break even | -25.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Aaron Jones Sr. in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 receptionsAaron Jones Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 52% to break even | -13.0Not beating its price | ||
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsAaron Jones Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even | -19.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsAaron Jones Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 7 of 12· last season58%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 2.5 receptionsAaron Jones Sr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 55% to break even | -26.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.