This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 53% to break even | 35%–81% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 53% to break even | 52%–87% | 20 points betterwon 73%, needs 53% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 9 of 1753%needs 53% to break even | 34%–71% | evenwon 53%, needs 53% |
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 72.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 72.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 79 | |||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsJustin Jefferson |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6.5 receptionsJustin Jefferson |
| Every game | 12 of 2255%needs 53% to break even | 38%–71% | 1 points betterwon 55%, needs 53% |
| -6.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 0 | +72.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 32 | +40.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 55 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 92 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 101 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 30 | +42.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 85 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 22 | +50.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 11 | +61.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 4 | +68.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 48 | +24.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 61 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 37 | +35.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 47 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 74 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 79 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 123 | -50.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 126 | -53.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 75 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 81 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 44 | +28.5 | Won |
| -199at Kalshi |
| 9 of 17· last season53%needs 67% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -35.9Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.1Not beating its price |
| Over 71.5 receiving yardsJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.3Not beating its price |
| Over 72.5 receiving yardsJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.3Not beating its price |
| Over 74.5 receiving yardsJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.3Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.3Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 3 of 17· last season18%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -160at BetMGM |
| 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 62% to break even |
| -4.5Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +111at DraftKings | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 47% to break even | -6.6Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.2Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 38% to break even | -24.4Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 receptionsJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +150at Fanatics | 4 of 17· last season24%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.8Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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