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NFLPlayer propReceiving yards
Justin Jefferson over 59.5 receiving yards
Won9 of 17last season · 53%
Best price-199Kalshi
Price needs66.6%wins to break even
Every game11 of 22this season and last
Trend score-35.9Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 67% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 67% to break even | 14%–73% | 27 points shortwon 40%, needs 67% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 67% to break even | 19%–65% | 27 points shortwon 40%, needs 67% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 67% to break even | 17%–54% | 33 points shortwon 33%, needs 67% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 67% to break even | 14%–73% | 27 points shortwon 40%, needs 67% |
| Last season | 9 of 1753%needs 67% to break even | 34%–71% | 14 points shortwon 53%, needs 67% |
| Every game | 11 of 2250%needs 67% to break even | 33%–67% | 17 points shortwon 50%, needs 67% |
Games like tonight
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Justin Jefferson over 59.5 receiving yards1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Receiving yards in each game against over 59.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 59.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 |  NO | 79 | +19.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  NYJ | 0 | -59.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  TB | 32 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  CHI | 55 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 |  GB | 92 | +32.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | GB | 101 | +41.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 |  DET | 30 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 |  NYG | 85 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 |  DAL | 22 | -37.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 |  WSH | 11 | -48.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 |  SEA | 4 | -55.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | GB | 48 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | CHI | 61 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 |  BAL | 37 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | DET | 47 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 |  LAC | 74 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 |  PHI | 79 | +19.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  CLE | 123 | +63.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  PIT | 126 | +66.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 |  CIN | 75 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  ATL | 81 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | CHI | 44 | -15.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  +146at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 41% to break even | -5.2Not beating its price | ||
| Under 69.5 receiving yardsJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 49% to break even | -9.1Not beating its price | ||
| Under 71.5 receiving yardsJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  -110at DraftKings | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 52% to break even | -12.1Not beating its price | ||
| Under 72.5 receiving yardsJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  -114at FanDuel | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even | -12.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 74.5 receiving yardsJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  -115at BetMGM | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even | -11.6Not beating its price | ||
| Under 79.5 receiving yardsJustin Jefferson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 61% to break even | -8.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Justin Jefferson in this game
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.