This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 51% to break even | 14%–73% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% | 26.4pass attempts |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 944%needs 51% to break even | 22%–70% | 7 points shortwon 44%, needs 51% | 29.1pass attempts |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 944%needs 51% to break even | 22%–70% | 7 points shortwon 44%, needs 51% | 29.1pass attempts |
| This season | 2 of 450%needs 51% to break even | 18%–82% | 1 points shortwon 50%, needs 51% | 25.3pass attempts |
| Last season | 2 of 540%needs 51% to break even | 14%–73% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% | 32.2pass attempts |
| Every game | 4 of 944%needs 51% to break even | 22%–70% | 7 points shortwon 44%, needs 51% | 29.1pass attempts |
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 5 at home. Tonight: IND allows 31.5 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks, the 10th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 33.7): an easy matchup for this bet. How IND defends quarterbacks
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass attempts in each game against under 29.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 29.5 pass attemptsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -130at BetMGM | 5 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped56%needs 57% to break even3 of 5 at home | -19.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 30.5 pass attemptsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +100at BetOnline | 3 of 5· last season60%needs 50% to break even3 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -20.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 31.5 pass attemptsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +110at Fanatics | 2 of 5· last season40%needs 48% to break even2 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -24.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 33.5 pass attemptsKyler Murray · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +180at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last season40%needs 36% to break even2 of 5 at home | Record is last season's | -16.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.