This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 55% to break even | 5%–56% | 35 points shortwon 20%, needs 55% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 55% to break even | 35%–81% | 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 55% to break even | 39%–78% | 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 55% to break even | 12%–65% | 21 points shortwon 33%, needs 55% |
| Last season | 10 of 1377%needs 55% to break even | 54%–90% | 22 points betterwon 77%, needs 55% |
| Every game |
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass attempts in each game against under 33.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass attempts | Beat 33.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 42 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 33.5 pass attemptsDaniel Jones |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 199.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones |
| 12 of 1963%needs 55% to break even |
| 44%–79% |
| 8 points betterwon 63%, needs 55% |
| 44 |
| -10.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 34 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 36 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 31 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 31 | +2.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 14 | 7 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 27 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 31 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 26 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 50 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 29 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 34 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 30 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 29 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 33 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 25 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 34 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 29 | +4.5 | Won |
| -112at Kalshi |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even |
| -22.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -103at Kalshi |
| 11 of 13· last season85%needs 51% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -3.3Not beating its price |
| Over 196.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.8Not beating its price |
| Over 197.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 11 of 13· last season85%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.5Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownDaniel Jones · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 56% to break even | Record is this season's | -13.9Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 completionsDaniel Jones · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 54% to break even | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 passing TDsDaniel Jones · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 39% to break even | -23.4Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownDaniel Jones · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.9Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 completionsDaniel Jones · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 54% to break even | -27.0Not beating its price |
| Under 196.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 53% to break even | -33.5Not beating its price |
| Under 197.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 53% to break even | -33.8Not beating its price |
| Under 199.5 passing yardsDaniel Jones · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 54% to break even | -34.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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